Hybrid wars in WHO classification. Hybrid war as a new type of war of the future. The non-state nature of hybrid warfare

The weakening of the modern system of global security, its deformation and fragmentation lead to the growing chaos of international relations. The color revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa, and more recently in Ukraine, contribute to the avalanche-like development of this process. International conflicts are escalating, network forms of international terrorism are gaining strength, the source of resources for which are Afghan drug trafficking and organized crime. The United States, in its quest for global hegemonism, uses the opportunities that open up to weaken its strategic competitors, primarily China and the European Union.

GLOBAL CRITICALITY IN THE MODERN WORLD

As a result, the world is rapidly plunging into the chaos of large and small wars, ethno-political and religious conflicts. Within the framework of the system of international relations, a global criticality is being created that can undermine the fundamental foundations of the existing world order.

The strengthening of the contradictory nature of the processes of globalization testifies to serious defects in the system of international security. In the context of an avalanche-like growth of problems and contradictions generated by globalization, the "element" of globalization is getting out of control and leads to chaos in international relations.

This is facilitated by one of the important properties of the system of international relations itself, which consists in its non-equilibrium nature and in its inherent desire for chaos.

The well-known American neorealist political scientist Kenneth Woltz warned about this property: “Systems within states are centralized and hierarchical… International systems are decentralized and anarchic.”

With regard to the problem considered in this article, the conclusion of the American political scientist is methodological in nature, since the proposed principle of international anarchy as a characteristic of the system of international relations determines the foreign policy strategies of states. One of these strategies is the strategy of creating controlled chaos developed in the United States and actively used in various countries and regions, which allows you to hide the true goals of the aggressor state behind a set of seemingly unrelated actions leading to chaos in the situation in the whole region or in individual victim state.

The United States considers chaos "manageable" and sees it as a new tool for advancing its national interests under the pretext of democratizing the modern world. The rest of the countries, including Russia, view this process as a general disaster that can lead to a global catastrophe.

The American strategy of using criticality in the national interests of the United States was frankly outlined back in 1998 by one of the developers of the theory of controlled chaos, Stephen Mann: , during the destruction of the Iraqi military machine and the Saddam state. Here our national interest takes precedence over international stability. In fact, whether we realize it or not, we are already taking steps to increase chaos when we promote democracy, market reforms, and develop the media through the private sector.”

It is worth paying attention to the unconditionally declared thesis about the highest priority of the national interests of one's own country. Others please don't worry...

One of the consequences of the emerging criticality in the sphere of international relations is the emergence of a new type of conflict, including those taking place using non-military methods to achieve political and strategic goals in the fight against the enemy. At the initial stage, such conflicts are based on the protest potential of the population during the so-called color revolutions, which are a combination of subversive technologies for the non-violent seizure of power. Such technologies worked, for example, in 2004 in Ukraine and allowed for several years to keep the country in the right direction for the West.

However, later, for a number of reasons, there were some changes in the position of the Ukrainian elites, and forces again came to power that did not fully suit the customers of the previous color revolution. The next revolution developed according to different laws and eventually led to civil confrontation in the country, which, according to the terminology proposed by the US and NATO, can be classified as hybrid wars. The term implies a wide range of hostile actions that are undertaken within the framework of a flexible strategy that has long term goals. These strategies are based on the complex use of diplomatic, informational, military and economic means to destabilize the enemy (A. Bartosz. Hybrid War in the Strategy of the USA and NATO. See NVO dated 10.10.14).

HYBRID WAR IN US AND NATO FORECASTS AND PLANS

Today, a number of official documents of the US Army are devoted to the development of issues of conducting a hybrid war and countering hybrid threats, including White paper Special Operations Command ground forces United States "Countering Unconventional Warfare" and the US Army Operational Concept "Winning a Complex World".

By hybrid warfare, the US military means undeclared, covert military operations, during which the belligerent attacks state structures or the regular army of the enemy with the help of local rebels and separatists, supported both by finances from abroad and some internal structures (oligarchs, organized crime, nationalist and pseudo-religious organizations).

The US and NATO documents state that with the fundamental role of the armed forces for successful confrontation in hybrid wars, states should combine the efforts of their governments, armies and intelligence under the auspices of the United States in the framework of a "comprehensive interagency, intergovernmental and international strategy" and make the most effective use of the methods of "political , economic, military and psychological pressure". These and several other documents note that hybrid warfare is the use of a combination of conventional, irregular and asymmetric means combined with constant manipulation of political and ideological conflict.

In a geopolitical context, hybrid warfare is a relatively new concept, applied mainly in the field of special forces operations, combining the experience of tough confrontations with emerging threats to international security and the lessons learned in the fight against extremism by state and non-state actors. Hybrid warfare is waged both by forces operating within a country or region seeking to weaken or overthrow the government, and by outside forces. The actions of external forces consist in assisting the rebels in recruiting supporters and their training, operational and logistical support, influencing the economy and the social sphere, coordinating diplomatic efforts, as well as conducting individual military actions. For these purposes, special operations forces, intelligence, organized crime are involved, a large-scale informational psychological impact is carried out on the population, personnel of the armed forces and law enforcement agencies, power structures using the entire range of information and communication technologies.

AT last years hybrid wars were fought in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Georgia, and now in Ukraine. A new form of unconventional warfare by non-state actors is the actions of ISIS.

Taking into account the peculiarities of a hybrid war, the task of the government is to organize counteraction through the integrated synergistic use of the diplomatic, information, economic, financial, legal resources of the state together with military force. According to recently retired US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, not only states, but also "non-state actors" now have access to destructive technologies and powerful weapons. “The specter of so-called hybrid warfare is becoming ever more real as our adversaries use insurgent tactics, using highly equipped military forces and sophisticated technology.” At the same time, the minister said that “The requirements for the (US) army will become more and more diverse and complex. The threat from terrorists and rebels will exist for us for a long time to come, but we also have to deal with a revisionist Russia, with its modern and efficient army.”

FACTORS OF EXAMINATION OF CRITICALITY

The forecasts for the development of the international situation over the next few decades, developed in the USA and NATO, are united by the conclusion that global instability is growing. According to the Americans, from the point of view of ensuring the national security of the state, the following factors will play a significant role in this:

- an increase in the role of non-state actors with a simultaneous increase in the number of possible political-military combinations, including state and non-state actors;

- the diffusion of power in a multipolar world against the backdrop of the spread of information and military technologies;

– demographic changes, including accelerated urbanization;

– increased competition for access to global resources.

At the same time, the threat of interstate conflicts with the use of modern types of high-precision weapons remains, while maintaining the role of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence. The presence of such tendencies requires the preparation of the country and the armed forces to participate in a wide range of possible classic and irregular conflicts, including hybrid wars.

The diffusion of global power is a consequence of the formation of a multipolar world, which contributes to the development of geopolitical instability. According to existing forecasts, by 2030, a single center of power is not expected to form, which will make existing alliances unstable, and relations between states will be characterized by a greater degree of hostility than before.

The diffusion of global power will also manifest itself in the growing role of non-state actors, who will seek to exert greater influence both locally and globally. Threats associated with the spread of information and military technologies will intensify, which will allow individuals and small groups to gain access to various types of lethal weapons, especially precision and biological weapons, the so-called dirty bomb, which can create radioactive contamination over large areas of the area, as well as to various dangerous chemicals and cyber technologies. Thus, extremists and criminal groups will be able to break the state monopoly on the large-scale use of violence.

The complex impact of these factors leads to the emergence of a new type of threats - hybrid threats, the sources of which can be both states and other entities. A feature of this type of threats is their clear direction against pre-discovered weaknesses and vulnerabilities of a particular country or region.

The development of a combat strategy, planning and building a countermeasure capacity should be carried out taking into account the important role of external support in hybrid wars. General methods The countermeasures against hybrid wars come down to reliably blocking the channels of funding for subversive forces, using diplomatic means to isolate and punish sponsor states, targeting all types of intelligence to uncover and identify leaders and infrastructure as prime targets for their destruction by “surgical” strikes of precision weapons.

Unlike anti-terrorist operations, a significant range of which is carried out in a short time frame, the time frame for planning, implementing and coordinating actions in a hybrid war is much wider. If a convincing measure of success in an anti-terrorist operation can be the destruction or capture of leaders, then in a hybrid war there are no such obvious indicators. To assess the results of such a war, one has to resort to comparing the territories controlled by the rebels and government forces.

For successful planning and interaction, it is necessary to develop and agree on the terminology used at all stages of preparing and waging war.

In a hybrid war, the most important role belongs to public diplomacy, which is able to exert the necessary influence on the parties to the conflict in order to give the events the right direction. At the same time, opposition to information attacks of the enemy is organized.

In general, as part of preparations for participation in a hybrid war, an appropriate long-term military-political strategy is being formed as the basis for countering the enemy, a special body is being created to coordinate efforts at all levels, from strategic national to tactical, and fundamental approaches are being developed for the effective and covert use of special operations forces and strikes with precision weapons. Areas that can be covered by a hybrid war are carefully determined, all their characteristics are preliminarily studied.


Islamic radical movements in recent times
increasingly used as the main
strike force in hybrid wars.
Reuters photo

CONTROL HYBRID WAR

Particular attention is paid to the formation of regional and global governing bodies for hybrid warfare. As applied to the United States at the strategic level, they may, for example, cover the regions of responsibility of the European, Central and Pacific Combat Commands of the United States. Such bodies also need to be hybrid in nature, with flexibility and adaptability from tactical to strategic levels, appropriate staffing, communication and information exchange systems, and opportunities to interact with partners. The presence of such bodies will speed up the planning process and reduce reaction time, given the extremely rapid development of the situation in a hybrid war. The core of such bodies is formed mainly by special operations forces, while the operational art and methods of planning the forces themselves also need to be adapted.

In general, the creation of a reliable and effective control system for a new type of war is possible through a serious restructuring of the entire system of state and military command and control bodies to give them the necessary hybrid properties, increase efficiency and flexibility of command and control. An important place is given to the decision-making procedures for the use military force taking into account the hardly predictable transformations of the borders of the regions covered by the hybrid war.

Particular attention is expected to be paid to the conduct of hybrid warfare operations in remote theaters. Such operations may include a military-civilian component, intelligence, control of the population and resources, the use of advisers.

INTELLIGENCE IN HYBRID WAR

Intelligence in hybrid warfare is vital important view combat support, is of a hybrid nature and combines the whole range of available forces and means, the task of which is to open the enemy’s mobilization system, its weak and bottlenecks in areas covered by the war, organize intelligence and propaganda, transport and logistics support. A feature of intelligence activities in hybrid warfare is the need to obtain information about hidden subversive elements that operate in a network consisting of isolated cells. In this context, it seems that in regions covered by a hybrid war, it may be useful to create original reconnaissance and strike groups, which can consist of isolated reconnaissance and strike-sabotage cells, each of which can solve a range of relevant tasks, have its own channels of operational, reliable and secretive communication system. The isolation of such cells will contribute to their survival in conditions of intense action. It should be noted that the leadership of the French Resistance came to the conclusion about the need for strict isolation of reconnaissance and sabotage units after many failures in the initial period of World War II.

The complex of reconnaissance tasks in a hybrid war differs significantly from the reconnaissance tasks in a conventional interstate conflict and requires, in particular, the organization of the collection of seemingly insignificant information in the context of the use of asymmetric approaches by the enemy. The processing and evaluation of such information, which at first glance does not have obvious political or military significance, can be entrusted to an efficient and highly professional analytical service created on hybrid principles, including not only the military, but also humanitarians, linguists, regional studies, psychologists, economists, financiers. It is important to have specialists with knowledge foreign languages and national psychological characteristics of the population of the respective countries and regions.

CONCLUSIONS FOR RUSSIA

Domestic politicians, military figures and experts speak about the growing complex of non-traditional challenges and threats to Russia's national security. “The world is changing... Before our eyes, more and more new regional and local wars. Zones of instability and artificially heated, controlled chaos are emerging... We see how the basic principles have been devalued and destroyed international law. Especially in the field of international security,” Vladimir Putin pointed out in his keynote article “Being Strong: A Guarantee of Russia’s National Security,” published in the central press on February 20, 2012.

The Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, at the military-scientific conference of the Academy of Military Sciences in January 2014, noted: “The role of non-military methods of achieving political and strategic goals has increased, which in some cases significantly exceed military means in their effectiveness. They are supplemented by covert military measures, including information confrontation measures, the actions of special operations forces, and the use of the protest potential of the population.”

According to the authoritative Russian military expert General of the Army Yuri Baluyevsky, the potential for the use of transnational, illegal (irregular) armed formations to forcibly change the existing state system, violate the territorial integrity of the state remains, and such a development of events cannot be ruled out in the foreseeable future for Russia. In this regard, the potential danger of a sharp aggravation of internal problems with subsequent escalation to the level of an internal armed conflict is a real threat to the stability and territorial integrity of our country in the medium term.

Under these conditions, there is a need to reflect in the doctrinal documents of the Russian Federation, including the Military Doctrine, the challenges, risks, dangers and threats associated with preparing a potential adversary to wage a new type of war against our country - hybrid wars. The enemy is developing hybrid threat complexes for use against Russia and its allies, each of which is based on a careful consideration of all the features of the proposed war area.

Attention should also be paid to the problems of information confrontation as an integral part of a hybrid war. In this regard, it is necessary to constantly and deeply monitor the development information technologies, as well as to improve, modernize the protection systems of the entire state and military infrastructure of Russia, create mechanisms for identifying and suppressing information and psychological impact on the population of the Russian Federation.

All steps to ensure Russia's national security in a changing world should be based on predictive assessments. There is no doubt about the complexity of forecasting in the conditions of modern turbulence. However, the task of developing scientifically based forecasts that will provide information about what political and military goals are achievable for the state and its allies is equally undoubted; create a basis for choosing a solution in the presence of alternative political and military goals; reveal the consequences of the political and military decisions taken, identify points of social tension and threats to socio-political stability, and thus prevent possible conflicts.

In line with the preparation of the country and its armed forces to confront the threats of modernity, including hybrid warfare and hybrid threats, an important role belongs to political forecasting as an integral part of social forecasting and at the same time an important basis for developing political and military decisions. The results of the forecast will show the direction of political changes, the transformation of the sphere of military security and strategy community development. The development of such forecasts is provided for by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation dated June 28, 2014 "On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation". In particular, the strategic forecast should contain an assessment of the risks and threats to Russia's national security.

Such a forecast can be based on a problem-target approach, in which extrapolation into the future of the observed trends in the development of the studied phenomena gives a general vision of emerging problems and contributes to the search for their effective solution. It is important that forecasting takes into account the interconnectedness of risks for national security, not only in military sphere, but also in the field of socio-economic, information, finance, etc.

New geopolitical realities, determined by a significant transformation of the spectrum of challenges, risks, dangers and threats to Russia's national security, have led to an urgent need to revise a number of fundamental provisions of the country's Military Doctrine. At the same time, it is hardly worthwhile to subject the entire doctrine in force since 2010 to a radical revision. Some of its provisions are still relevant today. This fully concerns the development and possible use of nuclear weapons systems. Here, feverish activity to reshape existing strategic plans is unacceptable.

Along with this, today it is necessary to correct a number of its provisions in connection with a radical review by the United States and NATO of the entire complex of their relations with Russia on the basis of building up the power component in their policy, the adoption of sanctions, affecting, among other things, the military-industrial sector of the economy of our country. A pre-emptive system of measures is required in the context of plans for a possible further expansion of NATO, preparations for hybrid wars, building up the bloc's military presence near Russia's borders, including the deployment of missile defense systems in Europe, and plans for major military exercises. Required strategic analysis all aspects of the situation in Ukraine, the forecast of its development and the consideration of the results obtained in military planning. There are other very disturbing developments in the world that need to be taken into account in military doctrine.

It is expedient to involve the expert community in forecasting, to acquaint the public more widely with the opinions of experts. In this context, I would like to wish success to the Epoch independent expert and analytical center, which, together with the editors of the Independent Military Review, held several productive meetings of experts on the problems of modern conflicts.

hybrid war

At a closed conference in Germany in early 2015, the commander of US forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, said that Russia in a few years will be able to simultaneously conduct three operations without additional mobilization. Under the operation, he meant the current conflict in Ukraine, since the NATO bloc carefully adheres to a far-fetched point of view (and actively promotes it in the Western media) that it is Russia that is waging war with Kyiv, sending military equipment, specialists to the Donbass and supporting the rebels with funds . Hodges said Russia had developed a so-called "hybrid war" that it had successfully tested in Crimea with the help of "little green men." And now the Baltic countries and Georgia are next in line.

The logic of the choice of these countries, which Hodges noted, is quite understandable, since Russophobia was deliberately cultivated there for many years, but why is Russia credited with developing a hybrid war?

We need to dwell on this concept in more detail. Recently, this term has been frequently mentioned by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, as well as representatives of the Ukrainian authorities - from home-grown military "experts" to the notorious head of the SBU Valentin Nalyvaichenko. It is necessary to clarify where this concept originated and what it means.

The author of this definition is Frank G. Hoffman, a former USMC officer and now Researcher US Department of Defense. This is a major theorist in the field of armed conflicts and military-political strategy, whose opinion is listened to by planners and decision makers in the high offices of Washington and European capitals. Along with asymmetric conflicts and unconventional warfare, which are also on the lips of military experts, the concept of hybrid threats is widely used in NATO and Pentagon documents.

So what is she talking about?

Let us give the floor to one of the authors of this theory. Hoffman argues that future conflicts will be multimodal (that is, they will be fought in different ways) and multivariate, not fitting into the framework of a simple black-and-white characterization. There are mixed forms of warfare, the frequency of which is increasing. In hybrid warfare, the enemy is most often a unique combination of threats. Instead of individual rivals with fundamentally different approaches (traditional, non-standard or terrorist), clashes are expected with competitors who will use - it is possible that simultaneously - all forms of war, including criminal behavior.

According to Hoffman, future threats can be more characterized as a hybrid combination of traditional and irregular tactics, decentralized planning and execution, participation of non-state actors, using both simple and complex technologies in innovative directions.

Hybrid threats include a number of different modes of warfare, including standard weaponry, irregular tactics and formations, acts of terrorism (including violence and coercion), and criminal disorder. Hybrid wars can also be multi-nodal - conducted by both states and various non-state actors. These multi-modal/multi-nodal activities may be carried out either by different units or by the same unit. In such conflicts, future adversaries (states; state-sponsored groups or self-funded entities) will use access to modern military capabilities, including encrypted command systems, man-portable surface-to-air missiles, and other advanced lethal systems; and will facilitate the organization of protracted guerrilla operations involving ambushes, improvised explosive devices and assassinations. Here, a combination of high-tech capabilities of states is possible, such as anti-satellite defenses against terrorism and financial cyber warfare, only, as a rule, operationally and tactically directed and coordinated within the framework of the main hostilities to achieve a synergistic effect in the physical and psychological dimensions of the conflict. Results can be obtained at all levels of the war.

Frank Hoffman himself, in an article published in July 2014, accused Russia of using hybrid warfare methods in Georgia in 2008, and for the same reason, former NATO Secretary General Anders von Rasmunssen in an interview with the New York Times in the same month he announced a hybrid war against Ukraine.

In earlier work, Hoffman says that “my own definition is taken from national defense strategy and focuses on enemy modes of conflict. This explicitly excludes "disruptive technologies" and includes "disruptive social behavior or crime… Many military theorists shy away from this element and don’t want to deal with something that our culture vehemently rejects and points out as law enforcement powers. But the connection between criminal and terrorist organizations has worked well, and the rise of and nefarious transnational organizations using smuggling, drugs, human trafficking, extortion, etc. to undermine the legitimacy of local or national government is clear enough.The importance of poppy production in Afghanistan reinforces this assessment.Furthermore, the growing problem of gangs as a form of destructive force within America and Mexico portends big problems in the future."

Afghanistan and Mexico are examples of such hybrid warfare. In the first case, this is some combination of local tribes, veterans of the Afghan-Soviet war (mujahideen), the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Ensuring activities through the production of opium to finance their activities, as well as fundraising from Salafi Islamists. Methods of activity - a combination of attacks on NATO bases and transport convoys with terrorist attacks and killings of individuals. At the same time, retaliatory actions by the United States and NATO (usually leading to civilian casualties) contribute to the support of the militants from the local population. In Mexico, the drug war, which has killed more than 50,000 people since 2006, is directly linked to internal turf wars between drug cartels, law enforcement corruption, and US interference.

Hoffman further defines a hybrid threat as: any adversary that simultaneously and adaptively uses a condensed mix of conventional weapons, irregular tactics, terrorism, and war zone criminal behavior to achieve its political goals.

In his opinion, there are a number of issues related to this definition. They include five separate elements.

1. Modality versus structure. Should our attention determine the enemy's combat modes or structures (combinations of states, non-state actors, foreign fighters)?

2. Simultaneity. Is there a force that uses four different modes of conflict at the same time, or has demonstrated the ability to use all four modes during the campaign?

3. Consolidation. Do the military mix different types, regular and irregular, in the theater of operations or should they mix different modes of conflict? How qualified is coordination and at what level of war?

4. Complexity. Do the actors mix all four modes, or are three of the four enough to make it a hybrid?

5. Crime. Is crime a deliberate mode of conflict, or just a source of income or support for the gangs and Taliban?

Hoffman's reference to the Taliban refers us to the events in Afghanistan and the related experience that the US has had there (since 1979).

In the scientific monograph “Conflict in the XXI century. The Emergence of Hybrid War (2007), Hoffman writes that organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah served as a prototype for it.

Indeed, other American experts believe that the Lebanese political organization Hezbollah used hybrid warfare during the conflict with Israel in 2006, and it was also followed by the insurgents in Iraq, organizing attacks on the American occupying forces. Hezbollah is not a structure of the Lebanese army, although the combat wing of this organization has small arms. The network structure of this party, based on social and religious ties, served as a powerful factor in resistance to Israeli attacks. In Iraq, the situation was even more complicated. The United States was opposed simultaneously by Shiite and Sunni armed formations, as well as former Baathists (supporters of the secular regime of Saddam Hussein). In turn, Al-Qaeda staged provocations in this country, taking advantage of the temporary anarchy.

It should be noted that these and other field studies point to the connection of the Western way of warfare with the relatively new speculative concept of hybrid threats. In other words, the United States, NATO and Israel, on the one hand, experienced the practice of hybrid warfare, and on the other hand, they felt the beauty of hybrid actions on the part of the enemy and developed an appropriate countermeasure plan.

The obviousness of this approach is evident in the fact that the concept of hybrid warfare is used not only by the marines and special operations forces, but also by other types of armed forces, in particular the Air Force, for which, it would seem, this model of warfare is generally inappropriate.

Michael Isherwood, in Air Power for Hybrid Warfare, published by the Mitchell Institute of the US Air Force Association in 2009, defines hybrid warfare as follows.

Conceptual diagram of hybrid warfare

Hybrid warfare blurs the distinction between purely conventional and typically irregular warfare. The term currently has three applications. Hybridity may refer primarily to the combat situation and conditions; secondly, to the strategy and tactics of the enemy; thirdly, to the type of forces that the United States should create and maintain. Early studies of this phenomenon often used the term to refer to all of these possibilities. In February 2009, Marine General James Mattis spoke of both hybrid enemies and the hybrid military that the US could develop to counter them.

Isherwood writes that in hybrid future contexts, US forces can confront state and non-state adversaries using a wide range of what can be considered “conventional” weapons, from guided missiles and cruise missiles to cyber weapons that combine lethal and non-lethal action. Opponents can use tactical ambushes one day, and the next day they will switch to conventional attacks.

The weapons and tactics of hybrid warfare will thus reflect the fusion of traditional and unconventional combat. When it comes to political goals, hybrid warriors are more likely to take on the appearance of irregular warfare, where its practices seek to undermine the legitimacy and authority of the ruling regime. This will require the US military to help strengthen the government's ability to provide for the social, economic, and political needs of its people.

It is important to note that the hybrid context referred to is nothing more than a product of globalization, blurring the boundaries of previous norms and rules. And the engine of this globalization was, first of all, the United States.

With regard to the sequence of actions, the American military experience in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq forced the Joint Staff to reformulate its stages of the war. Commanders now plan operations from Phase Zero to Dominant and then to Stability and Reconstruction. This formula was an important continuation of the main stages of preparation and the main battle. Nevertheless, there were also additional phases, consisting of a sequential set of operations - from formation and containment to seizing the initiative, the main battle and stabilization.

And hybrid warfare is different in that it allows the enemy to engage in several phases at the same time and puts forward a different set of requirements for the military.

The rise of hybrid warfare does not mean that the US should abandon the central tenet of its strategy. The past decade shows that the asymmetric advantages of the US military can adapt well to the challenge of defeating the enemies that constitute the offensive operations of hybrid warfare. The big danger lies in relying on a manpower strategy that finds application in counterinsurgency but can be less versatile and less effective when weighed against the demands of hybrid war scenarios.

Isherwood also notes that among the states, a potentially hybrid war can be waged by North Korea and Iran.

He goes on to summarize that the complex nature of hybrid warfare requires military commanders and civilian leaders to have a refined awareness of their operating environment or, as they say in Marine Corps, "feelings of combat space". They are trying to understand the planning, deployment of forces, operations and potentially deadly threats that arise in their operating environment. Information must be obtained against a backdrop of dynamic and complex social, urban and informational terrain, as well as bare mountains and dense jungles.

In these environments, a hybrid adversary can hide among the civilian population, look different from a typical enemy, and use the "electronic haven" created by the global telecommunications market.

Nathan Freyer of the Center for Strategic and international studies, who is also one of the authors of the term "hybrid warfare", believes that in the future the United States will face four types of threats - traditional warfare, irregular, catastrophic terrorism and subversion. According to Freyer, a hybrid threat occurs when any actor uses conflicts of two or more of the mentioned types.

It should be noted that the phrase "hybrid threats" was also used in the last three quadrennial defense reviews, published in 2006, 2010 and 2014, respectively. Therefore, it is a carefully crafted conceptual model that is actually embedded in the military doctrine of the US and its NATO partners. And the country's armed forces are already putting it into practice where they need it, from the inhospitable mountains of the Hindu Kush and the Mexican border to social networks in cyberspace.

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In recent years, the topic of hybrid warfare has been actively discussed in the media and at various scientific forums. Experts give different, often mutually exclusive definitions of this phenomenon, which has not yet acquired terminological stability and clarity.

Such disagreement is due, for example, to the fact that, according to some Russian political scientists, “there are no scientific criteria that would allow us to identify the war as a hybrid one or to assert that we are talking about a revolution in military affairs.” And if so, then there is no need to deal with this problem, they say. However, practice shows that the terms "hybrid wars" (as well as "color revolutions") describe objective, real-life phenomena that have a noticeable impact on national and international security. Moreover, the qualitative evolutionary leap of these two phenomena took place at the beginning of the 21st century.

DETERMINANTS OF A REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS

It is known that a revolution in military affairs is associated with fundamental changes taking place under the influence of scientific and technological progress in the development of the means of armed struggle, in the construction and training of the Armed Forces, in the methods of warfare and military operations.

The modern revolution in military affairs began after the Second World War in connection with the equipping of the Armed Forces with nuclear, electronic equipment, automated control systems and other new means. Thus, the determinants of the revolution were technological changes.

Hybrid war brought nothing of the kind with it. It has been repeatedly noted that it does not require the development of new weapon systems and uses what is available. Rather, it represents a model based on slower evolution, in which technological progress plays a smaller role in comparison with organizational, information technology, managerial, logistical and some other general non-material changes. Thus, if a revolution in military affairs is taking place, then without drastic changes in the methods and organization of confrontation, which includes non-military and military means. Apparently modern science only "gropes" for the criteria of this phenomenon, but the significance and necessity of this work cannot be overestimated. So the absence of revolutionary changes is not yet a reason for refusing to study this phenomenon.

Moreover, one of the founders of the term "hybrid war" American military expert F. Hoffman claims that the 21st century is becoming the century of hybrid wars, in which the enemy "instantly and coherently uses a complex combination of legal weapons, guerrilla warfare, terrorism and criminal behavior on the battlefield to achieve political goals." From such large-scale and bold forecasts, it is not far from the assertion of another revolution in military affairs related to the development of hybrid technologies.

So far, as a result of the existing uncertainty, the term "hybrid war" is widely used in scientific discussions, however, it is practically not found in open Russian official documents and in the speeches of politicians and the military. The vagueness of this term is noted by some Russian political scientists: the term “hybrid war” “is not an operational concept. This is a figurative characteristic of the war, it does not contain clear, unambiguous indicators that reveal its specifics. This is followed by the conclusion that in the military professional discourse today this term is counterproductive, and “focusing attention and efforts on preparing for a hybrid war is fraught with forgetting the invariant foundations and principles of military strategy and tactics and, consequently, incomplete, one-sided preparation of the country and armies for a possible war.

This is true on the understanding that it is impossible to prepare the country and the Armed Forces only for a hybrid war. That is why the Military Doctrine, the National Security Strategy and other doctrinal documents of Russia should be comprehensive and take into account the whole gamut of possible conflicts from a color revolution - a hybrid war - a large-scale conventional war and up to a general nuclear war.

However, not everyone agrees with the idea of ​​abandoning the study of problems associated with the hybridization of modern conflicts. Thus, political scientist Pavel Tsygankov, for his part, notes that “the prevailing point of view has become, the authors of which believe that hybrid wars are a completely new phenomenon”, they “become a reality that is difficult to deny and which actualizes the need to study their essence and the possibilities of countering them in defending the national interests of the Russian Federation”.

Such disagreement among domestic military experts is one of the reasons why the concept of "hybrid war" is not found in Russian strategic planning documents. At the same time, our adversaries, under the guise of sophisticated information warfare strategies, on the one hand, are already using the term itself for far-fetched accusations of Russia of cunning, cruelty and the use of dirty technologies in Ukraine, and on the other hand, they themselves are planning and implementing complex "hybrid" subversive measures against our country and its CSTO allies in Ukraine, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Given the use of a wide range of subversive hybrid technologies against Russia, the prospect of turning a modern hybrid war into a special type of conflict is quite real, which is fundamentally different from the classic ones and risks transforming into a permanent, extremely cruel and destructive confrontation that violates all norms of international law.

A FLUSHING BORDER BETWEEN MODERN CONFLICTS

In the confrontation with Russia, the US and NATO rely on the use of the basic strategies of any kind of war - the strategies of crushing and exhaustion, which the outstanding Russian military theorist Alexander Svechin spoke about. He noted that "the concepts of crushing and exhaustion extend not only to strategy, but also to politics, and to the economy, and to boxing, to any manifestation of the struggle and must be explained by the very dynamics of the latter."

In this context, the strategies of crushing and starvation are implemented or can be implemented in the course of a full range of conflicts of our time, which are interconnected and form a kind of multi-component destructive tandem. The components of the tandem: color revolution - hybrid war - conventional war - war using the entire spectrum of WMD, including nuclear weapons.

The color revolution is First stage destabilization of the situation and is based on the strategy of crushing the government of the victim state: color revolutions are increasingly taking the form of armed struggle, developed according to the rules of military art, while using all available tools. First of all - the means of information warfare and special forces. If it is not possible to change the power in the country, then conditions are created for an armed confrontation with the aim of further “shattering” the objectionable government. It should be noted that the transition to the large-scale use of military force is an important criterion for the development of the military-political situation from the stage of a color revolution to a hybrid war.

On the whole, color revolutions are built primarily on non-military methods of achieving political and strategic goals, which in some cases far exceed military means in their effectiveness. As part of the adaptive use of force, they are supplemented by information confrontation measures, the use of the protest potential of the population, a system for training militants and replenishing their formations from abroad, covert supply of weapons, the use of special operations forces and private military companies.

If it is not possible to achieve the goal of a color revolution in a short time, at a certain stage, a transition to military measures of an open nature can be carried out, which is another step in the escalation and brings the conflict to a new dangerous level - a hybrid war.

The boundaries between conflicts are rather vague. On the one hand, this ensures the continuity of the process of “flowing” of one type of conflict into another and contributes to the flexible adaptation of the political and military strategies used to the realities of political situations. On the other hand, the system of criteria has not yet been sufficiently developed to clearly define the basic characteristics certain types conflicts (primarily the "bundle" of the color revolution - hybrid and conventional war) in the process of transformation. At the same time, conventional war is still the most dangerous form of conflict, especially in terms of its scale. However, conflicts of a different kind are more likely - with mixed methods of warfare.

It is for such a confrontation with Russia that the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing the West. To this end, in the southeast of Ukraine, conditions are being created for a further escalation of violence from a hybrid to a full-scale conventional war using all modern weapons systems and military equipment. Evidence of qualitative changes is the transition to the tactics of sabotage and terrorist actions on Russian territory. The authors of such a strategy seem to underestimate the threat of outgrowth of the local conflict into a large-scale military clash in Europe with the prospect of its expansion to a global scale.

THE HYBRID WAR AGAINST RUSSIA IS ALREADY ON. AND THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING...

The intensification of subversive actions of the West against Russia in the early 2000s coincided with the refusal of the new Russian leadership to obediently follow in the wake of US policy. Prior to this, the consent of the ruling "elites" of Russia to the role of a slave country for a long time determined the internal and external strategy of the state in the late 80s and in the final decade of the last century.

Today, in the face of increasing threats, much more attention needs to be paid to multidimensional conflicts or hybrid wars (it's not the name) than has been done so far. Moreover, the preparation of a country and its armed forces for a conflict of this type should cover a wide range of areas and take into account the possibility of transforming a hybrid war into a conventional one, and later into a war using WMD, up to the use of nuclear weapons.

It is in this context that Russia's allies in the CSTO have begun to speak seriously about the phenomenon of hybrid war in recent years. Thus, the real danger of a hybrid war was noted by the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, General Andrei Ravkov, at the 4th Moscow Conference on International Security in April 2015. He emphasized that “it is precisely the “hybrid war” that integrates in its essence the entire range of means of confrontation - from the most modern and technological (“cyber warfare” and information warfare) to the use of terrorist methods and tactics that are primitive in nature and tactics in the conduct of armed struggle, linked by common plan and goals and aimed at destroying the state, undermining its economy, destabilizing the internal socio-political situation. It seems that the definition contains a fairly clear criterion that determines the difference between a hybrid war and other types of conflicts.

Developing this idea, it can be argued that a hybrid war is multidimensional, since it includes many other subspaces (military, informational, economic, political, sociocultural, etc.) in its space. Each of the subspaces has its own structure, its own laws, terminology, development scenario. The multidimensional nature of a hybrid war is due to an unprecedented combination of a set of measures of military and non-military influence on the enemy in real time, the diversity and different nature of which determines the property of a kind of "blurring" of the boundaries between the actions of regular forces and the irregular insurgent / guerrilla movement, the actions of terrorists, which are accompanied by outbreaks of indiscriminate violence and criminal acts. The absence of clear criteria for hybrid actions under conditions of a chaotic synthesis of both their organization and the means used significantly complicates the tasks of forecasting and planning preparations for conflicts of this type. It will be shown below that it is precisely in these properties of hybrid warfare that many Western experts see a unique opportunity for using this concept in military studies of past, present and future conflicts in strategic forecasting and planning of the development of the Armed Forces.

FOCUS ON US AND NATO MILITARY PREPARATIONS

So far, there is no consensus on the issue of hybrid warfare in the US military circles either. The US military prefers to use the term “full-spectrum operations” to describe modern multi-dimensional operations involving regular and irregular forces, using information technology, cyber warfare, and other means and methods characteristic of hybrid warfare. In this regard, the concept of "hybrid warfare" is practically not found in the strategic planning documents of the US Armed Forces.

NATO demonstrates a different approach to the problem of future conflicts in the context of complex non-traditional or hybrid wars. On the one hand, the leaders of the alliance argue that a hybrid war in itself does not bring anything new, and mankind has been encountering various hybrid variants of military operations for many millennia. According to the secretary general of the alliance J. Stoltenberg, "the first hybrid war known to us was associated with the Trojan horse, so we have already seen this."

At the same time, while recognizing that there is little new in the concept of hybrid war, Western analysts see it as a convenient tool for analyzing past, present and future wars and developing substantive plans.

It was this approach that led NATO to move from theoretical discussions on the topic of hybrid threats and wars to the practical use of the concept. On the basis of Russia's far-fetched accusations of waging a hybrid war against Ukraine, NATO became the first military-political organization in which this phenomenon was discussed at the official level - at the summit in Wales in 2014. Even then, the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, General F. Breedlove, raised the issue of the need to prepare NATO for participation in a new type of war, the so-called hybrid wars, which include a wide range of direct hostilities and covert operations carried out according to a single plan by the armed forces , partisan (non-military) formations and also includes the actions of various civilian components.

In the interests of improving the ability of the allies to counter the new threat, it was proposed to establish coordination between the ministries of the interior, to involve police and gendarmerie forces to suppress non-traditional threats associated with propaganda campaigns, cyber attacks and the actions of local separatists.

Subsequently, the alliance made the problem of hybrid threats and hybrid war one of the central issues on its agenda. The 2016 NATO Summit in Warsaw took specific “steps to ensure its ability to effectively address the challenges posed by hybrid warfare, in which state and non-state actors use a wide, complex range to achieve their goals, combining closely interrelated conventional and non-traditional means, overt and covert military, paramilitary and civilian measures. In response to this challenge, we have adopted a strategy and substantive implementation plans for NATO's role in countering hybrid warfare."

The text of this strategy did not appear in the public domain. However, the analysis of a fairly large reservoir scientific research and NATO documents on the issue of hybrid warfare allows us to draw some preliminary conclusions on the alliance's approaches.

An important place in NATO strategy is given to the question of how to convince the governments of the allied countries of the need to use all organizational capabilities to fend off hybrid threats and not try to act only on the basis of high tech. In this context, the special role of ground forces in hybrid warfare is emphasized. At the same time, it is considered necessary to develop the potential for cooperation with non-military actors, quickly build military-civilian relations, and provide humanitarian assistance. Thus, it is planned to use the hybrid war format for a kind of up and down play, the use of “soft and hard power” technologies on the blurred border between peace and war. Such a set of means and methods provides the aggressor state with new unique tools for putting pressure on the enemy.

One of the main tasks of a hybrid war is to keep the level of violence in the state-object of aggression below the level of intervention by existing organizations for ensuring international security in the post-Soviet space, such as the UN, the OSCE or the CSTO. This, in turn, requires the development of new adaptive concepts and organizational structures for the creeping collapse and suffocation of the victim state and its own defense against hybrid threats.

TRANSFORMING NATO SECURITY THREATS ASSESSMENTS

Challenges, Risks, Dangers and Threats (HRDS) are a key, system-forming factor in the current NATO strategic concept, and the results of the VRDS analysis in the document "Many Threats in the Future" provide a scientific and practical basis for strategic forecasting and planning of the military component of the alliance's activities. Some of these threats have already become real.

According to analysts, the most significant are the threats associated with climate change, lack of resources and a widening gap between states with a developed market economy and countries that have failed to fit into the processes of globalization and innovative development. Friction between these countries will increase due to the growth of nationalism, an increase in population in poor regions, which can lead to massive and uncontrolled migration flows from these regions to more prosperous ones; threats related to the underestimation of security issues by the governments of developed countries. It is believed that many NATO countries are paying unreasonably much attention to solving internal problems, while the supply routes of strategic raw materials are under threat or have already been violated, the actions of pirates at sea are becoming more active, drug trafficking is growing; threats associated with the unification of technologically advanced countries into a kind of global network, which will be subject to increased pressure from less developed states and authoritarian regimes in the face of increased dependence on access to vital resources, increased terrorism, extremism, and aggravation of territorial disputes. And finally, the threats associated with an increase in the number of states or their alliances that use economic growth and the spread of technologies for the production of WMD and their means of delivery to pursue a policy from a position of strength, deterrence, ensuring energy independence and building up military potential. The world will not be dominated by one or two superpowers, it will actually become multipolar. This will take place against the background of the weakening authority of international organizations, the strengthening of nationalist sentiments and the desire of a number of states to improve their own status. It should also be noted that the threats in each of the groups are of a hybrid nature, although this term was not used in NATO documents at that time.

In recent years, alliance analysts have clarified the geography and content of the ARDU that NATO faces in modern conditions. These are two groups of strategic challenges and security threats, the sources of which are located on the eastern and southern borders of the bloc. Threats are of a hybrid nature, due to different subjects - the sources of threats, the scale, composition and density of the threats themselves. The definition of hybrid war is also given, which is seen as “a combination and mixture of various means of conflict, regular and irregular, dominating the physical and psychological battlefield under information and media control in order to reduce risk. It is possible to deploy heavy weapons to suppress the will of the enemy and prevent the population from supporting the legitimate authorities.”

The unifying factor for threat complexes is the likelihood of using ballistic missiles against NATO forces and facilities in the east and south, which requires the improvement of the European missile defense system. At the same time, if in the east there is an interstate confrontation in which the alliance deals with a fairly wide range of threats with different characteristics, then the threats in the south are not related to interstate contradictions, and their spectrum is noticeably narrower.

According to NATO military experts, the set of threats on the "eastern flank" is characterized by a sophisticated, integrated adaptive approach to the use of force. A combination of non-coercive and coercive methods is skillfully applied, including cyber warfare, information warfare, disinformation, the surprise factor, proxy fighting and the use of special operations forces. Political sabotage, economic pressure are used, intelligence is being actively conducted.

NATO member states, as a strategic key task, are required to timely uncover subversive actions aimed at destabilizing and splitting individual members of the alliance and the entire bloc as a whole. At the same time, the solution of this problem is primarily within the competence of the national leadership.

Threats on the "southern flank" of NATO are fundamentally different from the confrontation that is developing in the interstate format in the east. In the south, NATO strategy aims to prevent and protect against threats civil war, extremism, terrorism, uncontrolled migration and WMD proliferation. The detonators of these types of threats are the lack of food and drinking water, poverty, disease, and the collapse of the governance system in a number of African countries. As a result, according to NATO, in the arc of instability that stretches from the countries of North Africa to Central Asia, a pronounced “European offshoot” has appeared, which requires the alliance to increase its ability to respond immediately. NATO's Rapid and Ultra-Rapid Response Force, designed to be used in all directions from which hybrid threats originate, is the most important tool for planning operations taking into account the specifics of threats from the east and south. In the southern direction, to parry threats, it is planned to additionally attract partners after they are appropriately equipped and trained.

INTERACTION OF NATO AND THE EU

Hybrid warfare involves the measured use of arsenals of hard and soft power. In this context, NATO, as a military-political organization, is aware of the limitations of its own capabilities in the field of "soft power", economic sanctions and humanitarian operations. To compensate for this systemic shortcoming, the alliance is actively enlisting the EU as an ally in countering hybrid threats.

As part of a unified strategy, the United States, NATO and the EU intend to unite the efforts of their governments, armies and intelligence agencies under the auspices of the United States in the framework of a "comprehensive interagency, intergovernmental and international strategy" and to make the most effective use of the methods of "political, economic, military and psychological pressure, taking into account the fact that that hybrid warfare is the use of a combination of conventional, irregular, and asymmetric means combined with constant manipulation of political and ideological conflict. The Armed Forces play a fundamental role in hybrid wars, for which NATO and the EU agreed in 2017-2018 to deepen the coordination of plans for military exercises to develop the task of countering hybrid threats.

The joint efforts of the US, NATO and the EU are bearing tangible results. Lost (perhaps temporarily) Ukraine. Under the threat of Russia's position in Serbia - our only ally in the Balkans, where there is not a single party in parliament advocating an alliance with our country. The possibilities of “soft influence” of the Russian media are poorly used, public organizations military, educational and cultural contacts are insufficient. Correcting the situation is not cheap, but the losses will cost more.

In this context important direction counteracting the build-up of “soft power” pressure on Russia, its allies and partners should be coordinated measures to create an appropriate “soft barrier” against the penetration of disruptive technologies aimed at the collapse and disunity of both Russian society and Russia’s ties with allies and partners. The task is to unite and coordinate the efforts of the expert community.

The urgency of such a step is determined by the fact that today NATO is actively developing strategies for the so-called transition period from the relatively vague military-political situation typical of a hybrid war to a classic conventional war using the entire spectrum of conventional weapons. At the same time, the possibility of events getting out of control due to an erroneous assessment, an accidental incident or a deliberate escalation, which can lead to an uncontrolled expansion of the conflict, remains outside the brackets.

CONCLUSIONS FOR RUSSIA

The most important component of the containment strategy, approved at the NATO summit in Warsaw, is a hybrid war waged against Russia and the CSTO member states with the aim of weakening and disintegrating them. The strategies of information warfare, which cover the cultural and ideological sphere, interfere in sports, educational and cultural exchanges, and in the activities of religious organizations, have reached a special scope and sophistication today.

The hybrid war against Russia has been going on for a long time, but it has not yet reached its climax. Inside the country, in large cities and regions, with the support of the fifth column, springboards for the color revolution are being strengthened, preparations are underway for the deployment of large-scale actions in all areas of the hybrid war. Alarming "calls" have already sounded from a number of central and southern regions.

The cumulative effect of military preparations and subversive information technologies forms a real threat to the national security of the Russian state.

For structures to ensure national security, important organizational conclusions from the current threatening situation should be to ensure the adaptation of doctrinal documents, personnel The RF Armed Forces and other law enforcement agencies and equipment to a changing range of threats and the build-up of military training activities with the decisive role of intelligence based on both new technologies and humanitarian and cultural tools. It is important at the state level to ensure a balanced balance of "hard and soft power" potentials. Particular attention should be paid to the protection of the Russian language and its study in Russia and abroad, especially in countries historically and culturally gravitating toward Russia.

In this context, a discussion in the Russian military scientific community on the issues of hybrid warfare and countering hybrid threats is certainly necessary and is already laying the foundation for more detailed assessments and recommendations. Taking into account the real danger of modern subversive actions of the West, within the framework of creating a state system of advanced research and development in the field of science and military technologies, it is necessary to provide for the creation of a special center with the task of in-depth study the entire spectrum of modern conflicts, including color revolutions and hybrid wars, as well as strategies for combining them with information wars and controlled chaos technologies.

The development of information technology has affected not only public relations, technological progress and an increase in the well-being of people, but also made adjustments to military doctrines, plans and strategies for military operations.

This process also affected our country, as changes in the international arena forced Western countries to begin counteracting the Russian revival from the ashes of the USSR. Hybrid war against Putin's Russia concerns public relations, includes political processes and affects the economies of the warring countries.

The essence of the hybrid war against Russia

This type of struggle does not involve the direct unleashing of hostilities with the help of the army and other armed formations.

during this period, the Americans introduced the concept of "hybrid war"

The main factors of influence are special services, agents of influence, state corporations and political actions. For 15 years, the list has been supplemented by the informational impact on the public opinion of the enemy and his active groups of the population.

The first application of the foundations and principles in the history of hybrid warfare occurred in the Republic of Iran during the overthrow of the local Shah. An information campaign has been prepared in the West to discredit the local political regime; agents of influence within the political and economic elite of Iran have betrayed their leader and taken the demonstrators to the streets.

The military leadership, bribed by the American special services, ignored orders and did not resist the demonstrators. European banks have frozen the accounts of the Iranian government and the assets of its leaders. These factors led to the fall of the regime and the establishment of a pro-American leadership.

The first use of hybrid warfare occurred in the Republic of Iran.

The essence of modern hybrid warfare is:

  • Use of "soft" power in conflict through economic and political leverage.
  • Application of modern technologies propaganda and information processing enemy population. Creation of a negative information field of the local government and the existing regime, discrediting the leaders and asset managers of the state.
  • Agent nomination influence from the local population. Providing them with financial and organizational support in creating a negative image of the local government. Organization of protest rallies, provocations of the authorities and mass events aimed at the image political system in a negative light. If possible, the organization of civil disobedience on a large scale, provocations and mass actions of a hooligan nature and riots.
  • Economic "enslavement" political leaders of the enemy country. In modern times, the European and American banking systems have absorbed the financial assets of many political elites. This financial instrument is an effective way of influencing specific recruitment persons and fulfilling the interests of the enemy. The financial side consists in the introduction of economic sanctions, a ban on the issuance of foreign loans and other financial financing.
  • Creating a negative information perception among the local society through the creation of news agencies in enemy territory and the expansion of broadcasting among the local population. Influencing through the media and conveying a different view of social processes forms a distorted perception of reality in the local community and prepares support for subsequent political changes.

These factors and methods have been used by Western countries in relation to Russia and its political leadership for 20 years with varying success.

Officially, the "hybrid war" was recognized 5 years ago.

A successful case of foreign influence and the implementation of the parameters of a hybrid war is considered to be the overthrow of the legitimate government in Ukraine in 2014, after which pro-American forces hostile to Russia came to power.

And despite the deterioration of economic indicators, the fall in the standard of living of the population, the political course towards the deterioration of relations continues.

A good example of what a hybrid war is in Ukraine was a demonstration of the classic methods of unleashing it. First, protests of civilians, and then rivers of blood in the east of the country. The West provides economic, political and military support to the current regime. Russia, in turn, helps the unrecognized republics.

US and NATO strategy

The peculiarities of NATO's hybrid war involve the use of available means of influencing the enemy without declaring an official war. Such a strategy against Russia justifies itself, since in the event of a declaration of war and the outbreak of an armed conflict, NATO forces will suffer unacceptable losses, and these actions will also lead to the outbreak of a conflict with the use of weapons of mass destruction and the total destruction of the warring parties.

Therefore, the conduct of a hybrid war to achieve a change in political leadership and the establishment of political and economic control over Russia is a priority and the main task of the NATO military bloc.

Information subdivisions have been created within the structures of the alliance for propaganda and informational impact on the Russian public.

Public funds are being created on Western funding, which aim to change information space, financing agents of influence on the territory of Russia and discrediting the political and military leadership of the country.

The political leadership of the Western countries and the NATO bloc is fighting against the influence of the Russian mass media, banning broadcasting and limiting the distribution and increase in the audience of the RT and Sputnik agencies.

Cyber ​​troops have been created in the military units of NATO countries.

Who are engaged in espionage on the worldwide network, the dissemination of defamatory information and the formation of the necessary public opinion in in social networks, specialized political forums and other places of mass visits on the Internet.

On the battlefield, the use of NATO forces in accordance with the concept of military conflict is carried out through the interaction of various formations and branches of the armed forces with agents of influence on enemy territory - traitors in the military sphere and political leadership.

The foundations and principles of NATO's hybrid warfare on the battlefield are developed during the armed conflict in the Donbass. NATO forces provide military instruction to Ukrainian army units, supply weapons and uniforms, and in some cases instructors take part in armed clashes.

The media of the NATO countries support the course of the Ukrainian government and present the actions of the unrecognized republics and Russia in a negative light and discredit the political leadership of the country, exposing Russia as an aggressor and violator of international norms.

The supply of weapons and uniforms is designed to weaken the armed forces of the republics of the LPR and DPR and draw the armed forces of Russia into an armed confrontation. The concept of hybrid warfare on the battlefield has been implemented for 5 years and has not achieved successful results.

Features, theory and practice of management

The theory of hybrid war does not provide for the open use of armed forces. It became a priority in the US and NATO strategy for advancing the interests of corporations on the world stage in the 70s. These theories were put into practice during coups and the displacement of the political leadership of the countries of the Middle East, Latin America and Asia.

Hybrid methods of war preclude the use of the armed forces of NATO countries. The destruction of the political system is carried out through internal interference in the affairs of states and the financing of collaborators on the territory of the enemy's country.

In Iraq and Russia, hybrid warfare has not been successful.

In the first case, the action of the armed forces of the NATO countries and the military overthrow of the regime were required.

Putin's classic hybrid war is now being waged in Syria against Western countries. The leaders of Syria and Russia act as opponents of international terrorism organized by the countries of the West.

US actions are aimed at overthrowing Assad and weakening Russia's influence in the Middle East. The theory of action of NATO countries at the domestic political level in Russia is as follows:

  • Bribery of public figures, scientific leaders and political leaders to apply direct influence on the country's leadership and the public.
  • Increasing information influence on Russian society by spreading the broadcast of its own information sources to a wide social audience. Creation of new channels, radio stations and Internet resources to promote their own point of view.
  • Information field distortion through provocations, the creation of fictitious news and the use of unverified sources that discredit the Russian government.
  • Creation of community groups and associations that aim to spread democracy, protect the interests of social groups. In fact, these associations are financed by Western governments and defend the interests of US structures.
  • The introduction of economic sanctions, impact on partners Russian state, the imposition of an embargo on Russian companies and a ban on doing business abroad. An effective tool was the ban on the issuance of financial loans to Russian enterprises and the freezing of individual assets.
  • The secret financing of the armed Islamist gangs in the North Caucasus and Syria that oppose the Russian armed forces.
  • Support for the destructive forces of the opposition and organizing rallies and civil disobedience actions.

What is a hybrid war against Russia

To understand what a hybrid war against Russia, unleashed by the leaders of the NATO countries and the United States, is, it is necessary to understand the tactics of its conduct on the external and internal political fronts.

For example, in the international arena, the Western opponents of our country do not miss the opportunity to carry out aggressive actions aimed at reducing the international influence of Russia and its external isolation.

The latest act of hybrid actions at the external level was the exclusion of Russian athletes from participation in the Winter Olympics without presenting strong evidence of the guilt of the participants.

Hybrid wars damage Russia's international prestige.

They reduce the internal prestige of the political leadership and, accordingly, directly affect the election results.

Foreign policy actions also affect decisions in the UN Security Council. Opponents block the decisions put forward by Russia in the international arena and do not allow the implementation of initiatives and humanitarian solutions, pursuing their own interests.

In the economic sphere on international markets, Western countries use hybrid attacks as levers of unfair competition, blocking the work of Russian companies, by imposing sanctions and restrictions on work under fictitious pretexts.

By implementing the decisions of political forums that have become the main weapon for a hybrid war, Western countries are trying to reduce Russia's political influence outside its borders, discrediting the country's leadership and its socio-political structure through the media.

A popular topic among the Western press is the distortion of historical events, the presentation of Russia/USSR in a negative light. This work is bearing fruit, as in Western countries the vast majority of the population misinterprets the participation of the USSR, in World War II downplaying the role Soviet army in defeating the enemy.

Reducing and distorting historical events Western leaders are changing the attitude of their own public towards Russia, thereby preparing society for a possible military conflict.

In the eyes of the West, Russia is an aggressor and a violator of international law.

In the eyes of the vast majority of the Western population, Russia is an aggressor and a violator of international law. This opinion was strongly influenced by the events in 2014–2015 in Crimea, which were widely disseminated by the Western media as unconditional acts of aggression.

Also on international level there is a blocking of economic initiatives for Russia's interaction with other countries in the military sphere, the provision of loans, and the construction of infrastructure.

Forecasting and planning for future operations

With the development of information technology, the emphasis in the conduct of hostilities in indirect hybrid warfare is on the development of information networks, especially on the Internet.

On the Internet, most young people get information about events in the world, so the impact through the network allows you to set public opinion in the right direction and form trends in the perception of social events and political phenomena through the prism of Western perception.

The fields for hybrid warfare remain economics and politics.

In the economic space, the impact on the enemy's economy can lead to a deterioration in the well-being of citizens, a decline in production and the financial sector, which will subsequently lead to a regulated change in political leadership.

Also, economic wars will allow you to take the resource base and control of the country into your own hands.

The political component lies in the introduction of agents of influence into power structures to include the influence of Western structures on political life countries.

Also, the creation of various political movements and the management of the opposition affects the public opinion of the population and forms a negative perception of power.

Terrorist formations and other paramilitary groups aimed at active military opposition to state power.

Such cases in relation to Russia are the financing and supply of military equipment to terrorists in the North Caucasus in the 90s, as well as the arming of Islamists and the training of militants in Syria and the supply of weapons to the hostile Ukrainian regime.

The military component includes funding for radical groups.

The main difference from the conduct of conventional military operations is the absence of a direct clash between the warring parties. The armed forces of the parties do not enter into direct confrontation, but instruct the opponents of the parties and finance hostile groups.

This type of confrontation is aimed at the displacement of political leadership in a relatively peaceful way without destroying production assets and infrastructure. In relation to Russia, such a war aims, in addition to overthrowing the existing system, to seize economic control over the country and control the use of natural resources.