Most science fiction writers and futurologists see the future of mankind in rather gloomy colors, and with good reason. Our attitude towards environment leaves much to be desired, we use technology too recklessly and become more and more perfect in self-destruction. However, there are also optimists who see the distant future as amazing and beautiful.

1. Status Quo
A realistic assessment of the current state of affairs was formulated by Bill Joy, co-founder of the American software and hardware company Sun Microsystems. In a 2004 article, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," he wrote about the catastrophic consequences that the development of 21st-century technologies such as robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotechnology could lead to. Joy believes that the most reasonable thing that humanity can do today is to use what is already there. Only in this way can it prolong its existence on the planet.

2. Green planet
The very first idea in this series was introduced by Bruce Sterling's Green Design movement. This movement advocates the use innovative technologies to solve environmental problems. Sterling predicts that the future of the planet will be much more ecologically diverse than at any other moment in history.
In such a future, a person himself will change a lot - in order to live in complete harmony with the outside world. It will receive all our energy from the sources of the Earth itself and the Sun. Having thoroughly studied the earth's ecosystems, humanity will change them too - for example, put an end to all predation and animal suffering. And he will control the weather as he sees fit.
And, in the end, we will learn how to prevent all sorts of natural disasters: the fall of asteroids, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions...

3. Living surrounded by "machines of grace and love"
If the future inventors of artificial intelligence set the right goals for themselves, Singularity believes, then the next generations will live among the so-called "friendly robots" programmed not to harm a person. Moreover, the machines will make sure that nothing bad happens to us and protect us from all possible dangers. Paradise, where a happy future is provided for us by artificial intelligence, is dedicated to a whole poem by Richard Brautigan called “The machines of grace and love are watching everything” and the British film of the same name.

4. Where no one has ever been before ...
It's high time to break away from our little ball and start colonizing others solar systems- some futurologists are sure. Not only our salvation depends on this (the idea that you cannot store all your eggs in one basket), it is inherent in our very nature - to develop, move on and conquer new horizons.
Even now, our still timid attempts at space exploration bring us a lot of benefits - technologies using satellites and some breakthroughs in science.

5. Interior space
Another alternative idea - an ideal and cloudless existence can be achieved by overloading your consciousness into giant supercomputers. Computers of enormous computing power, like the megastructure called the "matryoshka brain" proposed by Robert Bradbury, will use the entire energy potential of the planet to power the computer system.
Or civilization will find a way to build the so-called "Dyson Sphere", which is a relatively thin spherical shell with a star in the center. Thus, two global problems - living space and energy, which can be obtained in abundance from the central star.

We live in complex, disturbing and uncertain conditions. The world has changed dramatically and continues to change, and therefore, of course, I would like to know the vector that determines the main direction in a wide range of changes. The idea of ​​progress, which warmed the hearts and minds of people for so long, turned out to be a myth. Firstly, progress has touched only science, technology, technology, but has by no means affected the social sphere, and even more so, the spiritual one. Moreover, scientific and technological progress turned into social, political, economic and spiritual tragedies that affected everyone.

The question put on the agenda is not about a bright progressive future, but about the possibility of a future in general. A. A. Zinoviev noticed the essential need for all people to believe in the future and at least imagine it in general terms. Perhaps, in the aspect of faith, this is something that concerns all people, and at all times this is an essential feature of a person. Here is how A. A. Zinoviev himself speaks about this, and he speaks in relation to people of a “bright future”, which is losing this faith: “People's life depends on how they imagine the future, not only of their own and their loved ones, but also of their descendants, and even the entire human community to which they belong.

For many, even the future of all mankind is an important factor in their existence. People in the past endured terrible suffering thanks to the belief in the heavenly paradise of religion, and in the 19th and 20th centuries thanks to the belief in the earthly paradise. We are deprived of such faith in the future. Moreover, we live with the certainty that neither an earthly paradise during life nor a heavenly paradise after death awaits us and our descendants in the future. We live in fear of the horrors of the future. We need to restore people's faith in a better future.”

The spiritual elite of modern humanity is intensively engaged in the search for options for a possible future. Quite a significant number of thinkers have come to a disappointing conclusion: there is no future for mankind if it develops in the same spirit as it is happening; at best, humanity will last another 40-60 years.

Fortunately, others have not been so pessimistic, believing that “people will continue to use their innate abilities and intelligence to create rules that serve their long-term interests and needs. Human beings have been doing this for tens of thousands of years, so it would be strange if they stopped doing it at the end of the 20th century.” .

V. I. Vernadsky substantiated the theory of the noosphere as an objective and necessary sphere of the mind that is built on the basis of the biosphere. There is also encouragement in the belief that “as long as we can imagine other alternatives, all is not lost; as long as we can consult with each other and plan together, there is still hope.”

Of course, we are simply doomed to realize what kind of society we live in, what our public life worsened that people “behave in a self-destructive way and that they need to actively work to recreate the norms of their society through discussion, evidence, cultural arguments, and even culture wars.

In modern society, new, or high, as D. Naisbit says, technologies play an increasingly important role: computer, gene, nanotechnologies. Humanity is fascinated by their success and therefore either idolizes them or hates them, horrified by the consequences, but in both cases treating them unreasonably. High technologies must be associated with deep humanity, and then they will serve us, and not disfigure us, says J. Naisbit [see. 4] “Discussion and public understanding increase our chances of acting wisely and prudently in the form of emerging genetic technologies,” says J. Naisbit.

At all times, the great representatives of mankind have tried to imagine what the future of society will be like. While social life was relatively healthy, the future was painted in rainbow colors, and this found its expression in optimistic models that are presented in social, technocratic, socialist and communist utopias (Plato, T. More, T. Campenella, T. Münzer, F. Bacon, R. Owen, K. Marx, F. Engels).

As the health of society worsened, its social, economic, political and spiritual ailments increased, there was some sobering up, discouraging and even shocking models of a possible future appeared in the 20th century: D. Orwell, O. Huxley, N. Zamyatin demonstrated the logical conclusion of communism and capitalism , equally “unattractive and unacceptable” (D. Orwell “1984”; N. Zamyatin “We”, O. Huxley “Brave New World”).

With the collapse of communism, “de-ideologized concepts of the future” are built to a certain extent. Among them, attention should be paid to the concept of A. A. Zinoviev, a well-known and prominent philosopher of the second half. In the 20th and early 21st centuries, since he knew both communism and capitalism very well, “from the inside”. In his works “On the Way to Supersociety” and in the sociological-futuristic novel “Bright Future”, A. A. Zinoviev speaks of the future “supersociety” as such a social device that loses the features of sociality and essentially goes beyond society, turns into a monster . This “future society is not only a society of moral, mental and intellectual freaks, as our society already is, but also of physical freaks. Atomic tests, artificial food, poisoned nature, bacteriological, genetic and other experiments are the reason for this.

M. Weller, in the spirit of the ideas of synergetics, substantiates the idea of ​​the inevitability of destruction in his futurological and philosophical essay “Cassandra” modern society by the people themselves for the emergence of a fundamentally new community that meets the laws of establishing a new system in the world with all its inherent attributes.

That is why a person is endowed with superabundant energy, which he will embody in the explosion or undermining of the social organism as an already outdated and collapsing system. F. Fukuyama writes about the “great break” experienced by modern humanity, which also contains the idea of ​​completing the current history, the end of it, and characterizes a person, the “last man” as he is expressed in this story, endowed with a thymotic beginning, which is lost in modern times .

E. Fromm, an outstanding thinker of the twentieth century. in a number of his works, he holds the idea that the real, genuine real history as a truly human being, people have not yet experienced, they live in prehistory, cannibalistic, according to its characteristics.

K. Marx also assumed that only in the future will mankind be able to live like a human being, only in the communist future will true story. Note that E. Fromm partly shared Marxist ideas. It was E. Fromm, a philosopher and psychologist, who diagnosed modern society as unhealthy, sick.

What led humanity to a break, the end of history, to a painful state, which was expressed in the alienation of people from nature, society and themselves, in dehumanization, moral degradation, in the degradation of rationality, and, as a result, in the loss of humanity?

E. Fromm, who diagnosed the modern sick society and was convinced of the possibility of recreating, resuscitating a healthy society, warned: “a dehumanized person very soon loses not only feelings, but also his mind, and in his madness even the instinct of self-preservation” .

Man becomes a robot to man, man dies like a man, states E. Fromm.

The entire genetic pool of humanity can be changed, echoes J. Naisbitt, a person can be turned into anything. The last person remains in the prehistory of society according to F. Fukuyama. The reasons lie in the organization of society in all aspects of its existence. In the economy, this is an unrestrained and frantic pursuit of profit, which has led to the fact that the economy has outgrown its direct purpose - to serve the vital needs of people and began to serve their unhealthy super-needs. In politics, the desire for power in the name of power itself has prevailed. In the social sphere, the weakening of ties, their destruction and perversion. A crushing fall is taking place in the spiritual realm: demoralization, alienation, the growth of aggression, the cult of pleasure have permeated art, science has lost all moral components and has become an end in itself. Religion gave up its positions, focusing on the field of worship and organization and leaving faith on the periphery in its spiritual focus.

Technology broke out from under the power of man, and man did not have the wisdom and courage to keep it as a means, setting its limits and measure.

In general, it can be stated, agreeing with A. A. Zinoviev, that in the second half of the 20th century, ideas about the measure were lost in all spheres of human activity, an unrestrained and total violation of the measure began, which became the norm, which means that the measure as a way and condition of normal life ceased to be accepted into account. With. Weller also notes this immensity when he writes about outrageous humanism, about unlimited freedom, which distorted and mutilated the social and moral sphere. People have been given the opportunity to enjoy beyond measure, to consume beyond measure, to have fun beyond measure, to fulfill themselves in everything and everywhere beyond measure.

Technology has burst into our lives, the measures of application of which we do not know and do not want to know. So, “intelligent technology has invaded areas where it is completely unnecessary. The vital problems in these areas are not mathematical and technical problems ... The ordinary human mind is more than sufficient here. decisive role that is played by the desires and will of counterparties, and not by finding some optimal options. The use of intellectual technology here creates the illusion of the importance of the mind, masks the banality of the case and provides an excuse dishonorable deeds. Serious researchers have long established that in ninety cases out of a hundred, when the most complex intelligent technology, without it, in principle, you can do without. … you can’t work out a scientific understanding of society in any computers and with any empirical data. What is needed here is not a computer mind, which is a hypertrophy of only individual properties of the human intellect, and the simplest ones, but a mind of a completely total type, a creative, wide, multifaceted, flexible, dialectical mind. Computer thinking has killed the living fabric of knowledge and creativity. Humanity has loaded a huge mass of stupidity, ignorance, obscurantism into artificial intelligence. In understanding our society, our life and ourselves, we found ourselves at the level of our primitive ancestors, ”A. A. Zinoviev summarizes bitterly.

The immeasurable desire to modernize everything was expressed in the naive and dangerous idea that “modern progress should not follow the path of adapting its achievements to humanity, but the path of adapting man to his achievements” .

Oversaturation of information through the same intellectual and information technology levels out our natural differences and reduces intellectual level. In principle, people can know everything, but this excludes any need for understanding.

A paradoxical situation has arisen: everything that is supposed to help people become better impoverishes, demobilizes, paralyzes, stupefies, deadens people. Instead of "homo sapiens", "homo moralicus", "homo pulchris", we have "homo mechamicus", "homo consumeris", "homo economicus". Man gradually turned into a being endowed with superhuman strength; but at the same time he does not demonstrate the highest reasonableness; as his power and capabilities increase, he does not become happier, but turns into an unhappy creature; left to himself, winning freedom, flees from it. The second reason for the current situation is the distortion, the transfer of the efforts of mankind, its intellectual and vital capital to the sphere of material, technical, economic, political. There was a prejudice that the task of paramount importance is to create material conditions for a person, to provide comfort, convenience, and if this is achieved, a moral and spiritual order will be arranged and formed by itself.

No one argues that normal conditions are necessary for a normal life. “As long as people spend their main energy on protecting their lives from encroachment and on not dying of hunger, the love of life will wither away,” notes E. Fromm. And further: “a person will become truly human only in an atmosphere in which he can hope that he himself and his children will survive next year and will live many years later” .

But who and when argued that a person should choke on material goods, or complacency in satiety, contentment and serene security?

Mankind is obsessed with the political reorganization of society in a democratic aspect. It is often forgotten that democracy is not a panacea, and far from it. The best way organization of social life, which was proclaimed more than once in philosophy and political science, starting from Plato, Aristotle.

“It is impossible to separate the change in our industry and political organization from the change in the structure of our education and our culture. Not a single serious attempt at change or transformation will be successful if it does not affect all areas at the same time, ”says E. Fromm quite rightly.

Reorganization and changes concern precisely the political, economic, economic, technical spheres, and the sphere of culture and education is experiencing Negative consequences thoughtlessly transferring these changes, as already discussed. The market, democracy and technical innovations have distorted the sphere of culture and education, removed from them the opportunity to develop according to the laws of their genre: art has become commercialized and simplified, morality has been forced into the area of ​​personal life, education has become technicalized. “At present, moral behavior can still be found in the concrete life of many individual people, while in general society is moving in friendly ranks towards barbarism,” E. Fromm does not state. And Zinoviev A. A. always emphasizes the lack of moral feelings among the bearers of Western civilization - Westernoids - and the simulation of moral behavior in cases where it is beneficial for them. The very goal of social development, which was formulated by our predecessors, has been distorted: everything is in the name of man, for his good.

“We are much more in need of the revival of man than in aircraft and television,” E. Fromm wrote back in the middle of the twentieth century. (Now one could add that we do not really need computers, mobile communications and other technical fun). “If at least a grain of reason and practical sense used in the natural sciences were applied to the solution of human problems, then this would allow us to continue the task that was the pride of our predecessors in the eighteenth century.” The development of science, technology, technology, industry cannot be stopped, and it would be foolish to try to do so. Industrial and scientific-technical Luddism did not justify itself.

Science and technology should not be feared and should not be idolized. They must be curbed and eventually controlled, which is within the power of mankind.

In addition, these areas, which are so important in the life of modern society, must be humanized. E. Fromm spoke about “humanistic industrialism”, about the fact that we must preserve the industrial method, but we must decentralize labor and the state in order to give them humane proportion, J. Naisbitt, A. Schweitzer about the need to remain human and not go beyond humanity , A. A. Zinoviev warned against the transformation of a person into a superman as a degenerate person.

Education now aims to create a person of organization” and leaves aside the need to teach a person to live like a human being, that is, responsibly and freely, realizing himself and his essence to the maximum, in a state of love for life and all its manifestations; to teach to be actively collaborating citizens.

A person has all the grounds and potential opportunities for this, they only need to be released, and not to be engaged in his artificial construction, with the help of various kinds of technologies, including political technologies.

The desire to find new ideas and put forward slogans is also futile. All ideas have long been formulated. “We do not need new ideals or new spiritual goals. The great teachers of mankind have already formulated the norms of a healthy human life, since the idea of ​​the unity of the human race and its destiny was first born, the ideas and ideals of mankind were basically the same”, and “people do not need slogans, but individuals who have wisdom, strong convictions, and the determination to act on those convictions. These words of E. Fromm contain both the idea of ​​the uselessness of spells in the process of education, and the specific task of focusing on the best representatives of humanity, its spiritual elite.

Slogans are offered by ideology, which, according to A. A. Zinoviev, is a means of fooling people, turning them into some kind of standardized and necessary individuals for the system. Ideology creates forms (cells) a priori in relation to a person, through the prism of which a person perceives and must perceive the world. Ideology is inevitable, but modern ideologies have degenerated in the same way as many other phenomena of socio-spiritual life, or have been crushed, as they have been perverted by epigones. It so happened that "the masses of people have always lived, live and will live in ideological and psychological delirium."

To break out of this state of delirium, “we need to take seriously what we believe in, what we teach and what we preach ... Instilling in people the basic ideals and norms of our civilization is primarily the task of education,” insists E. Fromm. Therefore, the purpose of education should be the formation of a person, reasonable and moral.

A. Schweitzer and E. Fromm quite rightly and honestly wrote that society is afraid of the individual, since it is a means of expressing the spirit and truth with which it (society) would like to shut up, and that, unfortunately, the power of society is just as great like this fear.

And since it is society that builds a specific and necessary system of education and upbringing, we have to state with regret that modern education cannot form a full-fledged personality. Once humanity was carried away by the study and transformation of nature for its own purposes and then naturally, automatically transferred its boundless enthusiasm to man, and now it is ready to transform man, interfering with his genetic code. In the past, they tried to change a person in the social aspect, with less than meager knowledge about him.

Even nature should be carefully and prudently changed, taking into account all the expected consequences, carefully weighing all the pros and cons, not to mention man.

Taking on a person, they also look at him in a consumerist and rascally way, which is completely unacceptable. Those of the people who irresponsibly and recklessly encroach on human nature, not only exceed their powers, which should always be limited in a normal society, but, threatening the human being that has developed over millions of years, manifests itself as “subhuman”. And healthy forces should appear in society and courageous people, their carriers, who will be able to fight back such moral, spiritual freaks. Until a deep awareness of the need for a careful and humane attitude towards a person, preserving him as a person, the disastrous desire to remake a person for the sake of someone else's goals, eradicate his human nature from him, society will not be able to secure its own life and future. Only man can and should be the goal of social development.

Literature

1. Vemer M. Cassandra. – M.: AST, 2007.

2. Zinoviev A. A. On the way to supersociety. – M.: Astrel, 2008.

3. Zinoviev A. A. Bright future. - M., AST, 2006.

4. Naisbit J. high technology, deep humanity. – M.: AST, Transitbook, 2005.

5. Fromm E. Healthy society. – AST: Guardian. - M., 2006.

6. Fromm E. To have or to be. - AST: Moscow, 2008.

7. Fukuyama F. Great gap. - M .: AST, ZAO NPP "Ermak", 2004.

8. Fukuyama F. The End of History and the Last Man. - AST, Moscow: Keeper, 2007.

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L. I. Zinnurova. Modern philosophy about forecasts and prospects for the future of mankind.

The article analyzes the most interesting and deep concepts concerning the prospects and forecasts of the possible future of mankind and substantiates the conclusion about the need for the spiritual rebirth of man.

Zinnurova L. I. Modern philosophy of Prognoses and perspectives of Future Mankind.

The analusis of the most interesting and deep concepts conserning, perspectives and forecasts of a possible future of Mankind is being done in the article.

Abstract

L. I. Zinnurov. Modern philosophy about forecasts and prospects of future people.

The article analyzes the most important ideas and deep concepts that point to the prospects and forecasts of a possible future people, as well as vysnovok about the need for spiritual renewal of people.

Zinnurova L. I. – Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, Associate Professor

The future can be considered depending on the periods taken as the basis of the study. If they mean the concept of "foreseeable future", then this is the prospect of the next two or three decades, which are included in the range of so-called modern long-term forecasts. Beyond these time frames extends the realm of very long-range forecasts.

The formation of a unified world civilization is impossible without scientific foresight, which contributes to:

• a) creating conditions for the progress of society;
• b) social renewal of society;
• c) overcoming the crisis of civilization.

The relevance and necessity of scientific foresight of the development of society stems from the need for an objective analysis of the mechanisms for the formation and realization of interests, both of all mankind and various countries, groups and individuals, assessments for the future of new life processes, their selection and stimulation.

It should be noted that forecasting is subdivided by content into scientific and technical and socio-demographic and solves the following tasks:

• 1) notice the emergence of new phenomena in time;
• 2) understand their true nature;
• 3) correctly assess their significance for the future;
• 4) determine whether the emerging phenomena are progressive or regressive;
• 5) support progressive processes by creating appropriate conditions.

According to the technological procedure, forecasting includes the following steps:

• 1) definition of the object of forecasting and statement of the problem;
• 2) determination of goals, objectives and time of approval of the predicted phenomenon;
• 3) putting forward working hypotheses, forecasting methods;
• 4) determination of a system of indicators that reflect the nature of the predicted phenomenon.

According to the method, there are three types of forecasting: extrapolation, modeling, expertise.

Extrapolation- continuation into the future of trends and patterns that are well known in the past and present. It has always been believed that lessons can be learned from the past for the future, since the evolution of inanimate, living and social matter is based on quite definite rhythmic processes.

Modeling- representation of the object under study in a simplified, schematic form, convenient for obtaining prognostic conclusions.

Expertise- forecasting on the basis of an assessment, which is based on an objective statement of the prospects for the relevant phenomenon.

All three of these methods seem to complement each other. Any extrapolation is to some extent a model and estimate, any predictive model is an estimate plus extrapolation, and any predictive estimate involves extrapolation and mental modeling. In each of these types of forecasting, methods of analogy, induction and deduction, various statistical, economic, sociological and other methods of cognizing phenomena can be used.

It is important that the degree of reliability of forecasts depends not only on the methods used, but also on the accuracy and completeness of the initial empirical information, the truth of the theory and the laws on which the forecast is based. In this regard, distinguish precise and probabilistic forecasts. In the study of complex phenomena, one has to resort to probabilistic-statistical forecasts when the predicted object is exposed to numerous factors that cannot be fully taken into account (quantum mechanics, economics, politics, psychology, etc.).

An example of the result of predicting complex phenomena is an attempt to foresee the direction of the development of civilization as a whole. Here, according to researchers, the process of intellectual redistribution is approaching. The first redistribution - territories (the first World War), the second redistribution is capital (World War II), the third is technology (the process that is taking place today, including the informational psychological revolution, the existence of nuclear, biological, chemical and other weapons).

Moiseev N.N. in his concept of scientific forecasting, he speaks of the need for a third turn in the history of mankind, which is characterized by the search for a new model of the relationship between people and nature and among themselves. The first turn in history, according to N.N. Moiseeva - the introduction of the taboo system in the Paleolithic, which switched a person from biological to community development. The second turn is the expansion of the ecological niche in the Neolithic, when man moved to a productive economy.

Another type of forecasting is Utopia, which, unlike scientific foresight, which tries to accurately and reasonably represent the development of natural and social processes in the future, is an unrealistic plan for social transformation, describes fictional countries, social situations that are a model social order. Nevertheless, utopia is able to capture as yet imperceptible phenomena in the present and form clear images of the future. Therefore, we can say that utopia is a social ideal, an escape from negative reality (Plato, T. More).

All utopias are united by the fact that they are built on the basis of critical analysis. modern world, society and attempts to introduce alternatives. Utopias to some extent introduce into the future, become a guideline for thinking, create additional models development. In the twentieth century, such a kind of utopia appears as dystopia, the purpose of which is to depict negative social guidelines in a deliberately frightening or caricature form, suggesting their implementation.

The term introduced to refer to the field of knowledge dealing with forecasting is “ futurology". In the early 60s, futurology became widespread in the West in the sense of “the history of the future”, “the science of the future”. In this direction, negative consequences are justified. scientific and technological progress.

The organizational embodiment of this direction was the so-called Club of Rome, which includes prominent Western scientists (and since the 90s, Russian scientists), politicians, and businessmen.

The reports of the Club of Rome noted that at the turn of the second and third millenniums, humanity came face to face with the most acute global problems of our time, threatening the very existence of civilization. At the initiative of the scientists of the Club of Rome, a “global modeling” of the prospects for the development of mankind was launched.

The participants in these studies themselves were divided into two camps - optimists and pessimists. Pessimists- F. Fukuyama (the concept of the end of history), A. Peccei (the work “One Hundred Pages for the Future”), 3. Brzezinski (the concept of global disorder), the ideas of J. Forrester, D. Meadows speak of an impending catastrophe, optimists- S. Huntington (the concept of the clash of civilizations), A. Toffler ("Futuroshock" and others), M. Misarovich substantiate the possibility of avoiding the apocalypse with the help of scientific management of natural and social processes.

The concern of the world community with the problem of survival and the creation of a decent life actualized the problem of the essence of social progress, its signs and types. There is no particular disagreement on the issue of types of social progress; the classification of types corresponds to the main structural elements of society. In this regard, there are economic, technical, social (political, legal, scientific, moral) progress, as well as progress in the field of art and religion.

Considering the signs of social progress, it should be noted that there are many points of view on this issue, since this situation is largely due to the complexity of society, its multi-level and extensive system of relationships.

In domestic literature, the indicator of the state and level of development of the productive forces was put forward as the main sign of social progress. And although later the criterion of an even and fair distribution of the finished product was added to this indicator, nevertheless, they all worked in the economic sphere.

S.E. Krapivensky, engaged in the study of integrative indicators, proposed as such an indicator the level of humanization of society, that is, the position of the individual in it, the degree of its economic, political and social liberation, the level of satisfaction of its material and spiritual needs, the state of its psychophysical and social health. And, finally, as the most synthetic - an indicator of average life expectancy.

Agreeing with the importance of these indicators of social progress, it should be said about the need to look for signs of social progress. These are: an indicator that characterizes the rate of emergence of innovations in each of the spheres (elements) of the structure of society: economic, political, legal, etc. scientific and other processes.

It should be noted that in each sphere of society, quite accurate tools have been accumulated for assessing the quantity and quality of innovations that take place here.

The next indicator of social progress characterizes the degree of delay from the moment an innovation (a new idea or its materialization) appears to its expanded reproduction. The lower this indicator, the more progressive the society. This gap exists in all spheres of society, but in developed countries it has been reduced to an optimal minimum and work in this direction continues.

The third indicator characterizes the always existing interval between innovations that take place in different areas society (economic, political, legal, etc.), that is, one or more areas always occupy a leading position, stimulating the development of the others. Consequently, the society is more progressive, where this interval is smaller, where the progressive development of all spheres of society takes place.

And, finally, an important indicator of the progressiveness of a society is its ability to change regressive phenomena into progressive ones. Dysfunctional phenomena and processes take place in any society, but the strength of society is precisely manifested in the ability to notice such a phenomenon in a short time, diagnose its causes, outline and implement measures to eliminate this negative phenomenon.

Thus, social progress is not a straight line going up, it is a complex zigzag process in which progress and regress, being qualitatively multidirectional processes, exist and are realized simultaneously, mutually determine and mutually presuppose each other.

A striking example of such regressive phenomena are the so-called global problems of our time.

The rapid development of technology, climatic metamorphoses and constant population growth in the next few decades will radically change life on our planet.

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2030: man will land on Mars

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Talk about an expedition to Mars has been going on for more than a year. However, quite concrete steps towards the realization of this goal began to be taken not so long ago. In the summer of 2011, representatives of the 10 largest world space agencies met as part of a meeting of the International Coordinating Group for Space Exploration. Basically, scientists discussed the issues of the colonization of Mars. A number of decisions were made and preparations for the expedition began.

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But from this prediction it becomes somehow creepy. American scientists are sure that, taking into account Moore's Law(the observation that computer performance doubles every two years), in 20 years artificial intelligence will be able to make its own decisions and be fully creative.

This process is fraught with many dangers (we all remember the famous fantastic saga "Terminator"), but experts still believe that the computer mind cannot escape from human control.

2050: Africa and Asia will turn into a giant dump

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In most civilized countries, the garbage issue has been resolved, but in many African and Asian states, people simply drowned in household waste. Every year there is more and more garbage. Local authorities they can not always organize its removal to a landfill, not to mention the proper processing.

If in the near future experienced "cleansers" do not help the third world countries, Africa and Asia are facing a real environmental disaster. In 30 years, it may well happen that due to the poisoning of soil and groundwater, animals will begin to die, and people will begin to massively move from places no longer suitable for habitation - a new wave of migration will overwhelm Europe and America. In this case, there may not be enough space for everyone.

2075: The ozone layer will fully recover

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AT recent times about ozone layer not often said, when in the 1980s mankind was shocked by the news that the chlorofluorocarbons contained in aerosol cans "punched" a huge hole in our natural protective screen against ultraviolet radiation. A few years later, aerosol manufacturers were banned from using substances harmful to the ozone layer.

Some time passed, and a huge hole over the Arctic began to gradually "tighten". The process of regeneration of the ozone shield is slow, so its full recovery will occur only after more than 50 years.

2100: Amazon forests will almost disappear

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Well, now to the sad one. The facts listed earlier can be attributed to positive changes. However, scientific and technological progress, overpopulation and human dependence on natural resources caused a number of environmental disasters.

Scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research Wolfgang Kramer I am sure that in 80 years the Amazon jungle will practically disappear due to drought, which has become more frequent there due to global warming. In addition, these unique forests are being actively cut down, despite numerous protests from the "greens". According to scientists, by the next century only 83% of the Amazonian jungle will remain.

Radical climate change is gradually destroying not only flora but also fauna. If the general temperature background continues to rise, then we will lose about 900 species of birds: birds of all animals are most susceptible to environmental problems.

2100: Venice sinks

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Over the past 100 years, one of the most beautiful European cities has sunk 23 centimeters into the sea. The inhabitants of Venice have always suffered from floods, but now the situation is almost out of control. Today, the famous St. Mark's Square is flooded with water almost a hundred times a year, while at the beginning of the 20th century this happened 10 times less often.

As the forecasts of many scientists show, in 15 years it will be almost impossible to live in Venice, and in 80 years the sea will swallow the city completely.

To share with friends: The pace of scientific and technological progress is now such that you can make any, even the most incredible predictions. But really, why not dream, say, about immortality or about flights into deep space? ..
Predictions by "theory"
The famous American scientist, inventor and futurist Raymond Kurzweil has been making predictions in the scientific and technical field for more than 30 years. Most of his predictions, given, as a rule, for 10-40 years ahead, come true with a high degree accuracy. Back in the early 1980s, he predicted the explosive development of the Internet, which should occur in the 90s. At the same time, the scientist predicted the victory of a computer over the world chess champion in 1998. And he made a mistake by only one year: the Deep Blue computer beat G. Kasparov in 1997.
Kurzweil makes his predictions in accordance with the theory he developed, which he calls the "Law of accelerating returns." It is based on the pace of accelerating world scientific and technological progress. In particular, Kurzweil traces progress in the evolution of computers. At first, doubling of computer power occurred every three years, in the middle of the 20th century this period was reduced to two years, and now it takes only one year to double the power of computers.
People will be treated by nanorobots
According to Kurzweil, in 40 years humanity will achieve unlimited material abundance, and people will become immortal. Here, the futurist took into account, first of all, the development of genetics, computer technology and nanotechnology. In his speech at the World Science Festival last summer, he predicted that by 2030 there will be means for reprogramming the entire human body, which, according to the scientist, is a natural computer. In this way, he says, we will be able to halt and then completely reverse aging.
Soon people will be able to live without fear for their internal organs including the heart, says Kurzweil. They will only have to periodically visit a doctor to monitor their health, because the cells of their own blood controlled by nanorobots will constantly maintain the body in a normal state.
With the help of nanotechnologies, it will be possible to grow new organs directly in the human body itself to replace the old ones, as well as to repair broken organs and tissues. Such repairs can be made by the same ubiquitous nanorobots embedded in the circulatory system. They, like travelers in the jungle, will independently move through the vessels, arteries and capillaries, correcting the characteristics of the cells indicated in the “route sheet”, cleansing the body of microbes, cancer cells and cholesterol deposits.
And as the organs obtained from nature fail, these organs will change to artificial ones until the whole person becomes an android. The most difficult thing now seems to be the replacement of the sense organs. But from the leading laboratories of the world there are reports that the artificial eye and nose are within easy reach: "An artificial pancreas and nerve fibers have already been created ..."
Diagnostic toilets and sex "in the head"
One of Kurzweil's curious predictions is the appearance of diagnostic toilets in 2017. It is enough for a person to go to the toilet, having flushed information about his health into such a toilet along with the contents of the rectum and bladder, and then he does not even need to see a doctor. Going to the toilet the next morning, you can read the desired recipe issued by the computer on the roll of toilet paper.
Nanotechnology will also increase the mental abilities of people, the futurist believes. Each of us can write an entire book in a matter of hours.


Computers will take over the function of teaching children

"Obsolete" modern sex. After all, if you look, sexual pleasure is given to us not by animal manipulations with our reproductive organs, but by signals that affect certain parts of the brain. In the future, a person will be able to get a hundred times more acute than with normal sex, sexual pleasure - again with the help of nanorobots that affect these very parts of the brain. This does not require a partner. As for children, they will be "conceived" in test tubes.
Nanorobots will also be created for animals, in particular for livestock. As a result, it will be possible to cut off a shank or fillet from live cows and pigs, which will then grow back like a lizard. Waste-free food will appear, and animals will be able to empty their stomach once a week.
“Perhaps my reasoning will seem implausible to someone,” the scientist concludes his speech at the forum, “but much of what I am talking about already exists.”
In 2015 there will be no electronic money?
Kurzweil's forecasts, despite all their fantasticness, are taken quite seriously by experts. Especially when you consider that no later than in 2007, the presentation of the world's first quantum computer, predicted by the same Kurzweil, took place. This computer in the very near future should make a revolution in technology, as it is based on a completely different principle than silicon computers. The distance between them is like between accounting accounts and a laptop. Silicon computers are built on the principle of "zero-one", or rather, "either zero - or one." Quantum ones are not “either-or”, but “and-and”, because at the same moment both states will be involved. This is due to the dualism of the photon, the carrier of information in a quantum computer. A photon is both a particle and a wave, operating with quantum bits that can take on both values ​​at once.
Kurzweil claims that by 2015 a quantum computer will be able to process more data streams than particles in the universe, and most leading experts agree with him. The field of application of computers will expand enormously. Thus, a quantum computer that cannot be classified will devalue all modern cryptography, all code systems and cause a revolution in the areas related to privacy and security. First of all, it will hit the banks. It is not clear how they will get out of the situation, because the entire system of electronic money circulation will collapse, including plastic cards will lose their meaning. The veils of secrecy with the CIA FSB, MI6, MOSSADA will be broken. The more powerful the computers, the higher the flow of information, and hence the more lightweight the secrecy.
"Under the hood" of artificial intelligence
In the forecasts of futurologists it has already become common place predicting the computerization of people's lives, including the use of computers in cooking, driving, conducting financial transactions, monitoring health, learning, entertainment, and others. Kurzweil goes further and makes a prediction that from 2045, all computerized processes on the planet, including household ones, will begin to come together, so that eventually the Earth will turn into one giant supercomputer controlled by a single super-powerful artificial intelligence.
Among his other predictions, the following can be distinguished: in the 2020s, alternative energy and activities aimed at improving human life and not threatening the environment will become widespread; by 2030 space tourism will develop; in 2028, a permanent colony on the Moon will be established. Space will become integral part world economy. In 2040-2050 the world will unite: its political map will resemble the European Union or the United States, thanks to which it will be possible to significantly extinguish inter-ethnic and inter-confessional conflicts.
Street dirt food
Speaking of futurologists, it is impossible not to mention Arthur Clarke, a 90-year-old English science fiction writer who lived in Sri Lanka. Like Kurzweil, he was one of the few forecasters who achieved at least 80% of what they predicted. So, back in the 1950s, Clark predicted the emergence of a system of satellites in geostationary orbit that would be able to solve a variety of tasks - from meteorological observations to espionage. In those same years, he predicted the progress of computers, the emergence of the Internet, the development of nuclear energy, the landing of a man on the moon, the cloning of living beings.


By 2030, space tourism will develop

And here are the writer's predictions regarding the 21st century: in 2014 the first space hotel will welcome guests; in 2020, artificial intelligence will reach the level of a person; in 2021, people will land on Mars; in 2023 - cloning of dinosaurs thanks to the reproduced DNA structure; in 2040 - the production of molecular duplicates of any objects and substances. In other words, from everything, even from street dirt, it will be possible to make (with the participation of computers, of course) food, clothes, houses, cars, diamonds. Industry and Agriculture will lose their meaning. A person will go into science, art, entertainment. In 2050, mass freezing of people will begin. Most of mankind in cryogenic sleep will rush into the distant future. By 2090, according to A. Clark, aircraft capable of reaching near-light speed will be created. This will make real interstellar flights with frozen astronauts on board under the control of powerful artificial intelligence.