Could a third world war break out in 2018?

If so, here are five risk areas where this could happen, as identified by Aftonbladet.

“There is an increased risk,” says Isak Svensson, professor of peace and conflict studies at Uppsala University.

Republican Senator Bob Corker has warned that Donald Trump could lead the US down "the road to a third world war."
There is a risk that he is not completely mistaken.

According to Isak Svensson, professor of peace and conflict studies, there are three factors that hinder war more than others.

All of them are now collapsing, largely because of Trump and rising nationalism.

1. International organizations

“One of the goals of the UN, the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), the EU and similar organizations is to reduce the risk of armed conflict. But because Trump is constantly trying to dismantle international cooperation, these organizations may weaken. This will affect the risk of war,” says Isak Svensson.

2. International trade

During his campaign, Trump accused China of "raping" the American economy. Therefore, many experts expected that he would impose customs duties on Chinese goods, which would result in a full-fledged trade war.

“So far it hasn’t happened, but at least he signaled that he is not particularly interested in encouraging free trade,” said Isak Svensson.

3. Democracy

The two democracies have never been at war with each other. But the wave of nationalism that has swept the world can rock democracies.

“Populist nationalism has targeted democratic institutions: universities, courts, media, electoral bodies, and so on. This is noticeable in the United States under Trump, in Hungary, Poland and Russia, for example, ”says Isak Svensson.

Threat from nationalism

Svensson sees how nationalism threatens all three factors preventing war.

India has a policy of not being the first to use nuclear weapons. Instead, an attempt was made to increase the ability to respond to provocations by rapidly sending armored columns deep into Pakistani territory.

Multimedia

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Reuters 09/19/2017

"Death to American Bastards!"

The Guardian 08/22/2017

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The Diplomat 01/24/2013 Militarily weaker Pakistan responded by introducing Nasr short-range missiles that can be equipped with nuclear warheads.

Many experts fear that a development where Pakistan feels compelled to use tactical nuclear weapons to defend itself could quickly turn a small conflict into a full-blown nuclear war.

Niklas Svanström, however, believes that the likelihood of a world war is low.

“Other countries do not have interests related to security policy there. Pakistan has close relations with China, while India has close relations with Russia. But neither Russia nor China will take risks and start a large-scale military confrontation. It is also hard for me to imagine that the US would interfere in such a conflict.”

India - China

Indian Army General Bipin Rawat said in early September that the country should prepare for a two-front war against Pakistan and China.

Shortly before this, a ten-week confrontation between China and India over the definition of the border ended in the Himalayas. Chinese road builders escorted by the military were stopped by Indian troops. The Chinese claimed to be in China, the Indians claimed to be in Bhutan, an ally of India.

According to Bipin Rawat, such a situation could easily escalate into a conflict, and Pakistan could then use this situation to its advantage.

“We must be prepared. In the context of our situation, war is very real,” Rawat said, according to the Press Trust of India.

The border between China and India has long been a point of contention, but the atmosphere is now quite relaxed. But while China and Pakistan have moved closer economically, aggressive nationalism suggests that this may be changing.

“It is difficult to see any hints as to why a conflict could break out there, but there is an increased risk of this. The economies of both countries are growing rapidly, and both countries are spurred on by rather aggressive nationalism. The unresolved territorial issue is, of course, a clear risk factor,” says Isak Svensson.

Niklas Svanström does not think that China will gain much from this conflict, and that India simply cannot win a war against China. Conflicts will continue, but on a limited scale.

“The only situation that can lead to a full-scale war is if India recognizes Tibet as an independent country and starts supporting the Tibetan military movement that is fighting against China. I regard this as something extremely unlikely,” says Niklas Svanström.

the Baltics

States: Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, NATO military alliance.

One of the biggest risks that could now lead to conflict is Russia's growing ambitions against Europe, says Niklas Granholm, head of scientific work at the Total Defense Institute, FOI.

“Russia has abandoned the set of rules that has been in place since the early 1990s and which defines European security measures,” says Niklas Granholm. - The main milestone in this matter was the war against Ukraine, when in 2014 there was an invasion of this country and the annexation of Crimea, which marked the beginning of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Russia has shown great faith in military means. The Baltic region has again found itself on the line of confrontation between East and West, which seemed to many quite improbable just a few years ago.”

The cause of the conflict may be ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltic countries, says Isak Svensson.

“In Ukraine, Russia has shown that it is ready to use military force in order, from her point of view, to protect Russian-speaking minorities. Thus, there is a hidden risk of Russian intervention in the Baltics if an internal crisis breaks out in any of the countries. Such a scenario is quite conceivable. It is rather unlikely today, but possible in the future.”

InoSMI materials contain estimates exclusively foreign media and do not reflect the position of the editors of InoSMI.

Alina Chernoivanov, RIA Novosti.

The Caucasus, the Middle East, Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region are all areas of special attention for military experts and diplomats. Where are the lines of geopolitical faults today, and where will we expect hostilities tomorrow? How likely is a third world war and will it necessarily be nuclear? How to prevent the destruction of civilization? These questions have been answered by experts round table"Military Concepts and Challenges of the 21st Century", organized by the International Affairs magazine at MGIMO on April 26.

Input data

It is perhaps incorrect to talk about the likelihood of the development of military conflicts without imagining what exactly modern military conflicts are like. War in the understanding of the average civilian is something like "when the tanks fire, the planes bomb." But war is different.

Vice President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems Konstantin Sivkov recalled the classification of military conflicts developed by the Russian Center for Military Strategic Studies. According to this classification, military conflicts are defined by reason of their occurrence, geography, duration and the required number of troops.

The smallest scale border conflict(lasts from a week to a month, requires a group of about 10-50 thousand people). The next level is an armed conflict (about 100 thousand people; from a month to several years). Further - local war, which is impossible to conduct without a grouping of a million people (such, by the way, is the planned number of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation following the results of the reform). Local war lasts from several months to several years. Regional war, an example of which can be considered the Great Patriotic War, on present stage development requires a grouping of about 5-6 million people. Finally, the highest form of military conflict is world war. "By structure, a world war can represent a system of regional, local wars, armed conflicts," Sivkov explained, "or simply local wars and armed conflicts that cover a significant part of the world's territory."

Hot spots of the future

Based on this classification of military conflicts and contradictions existing in the world, military experts predict probable threats. However, it is worth noting that we are talking about the forecast. And about the long-term forecast. Without specifying the exact dates and guarantees of its implementation.

"All the contradictions that currently exist in the world allow us to say that the entire spectrum of wars can actually arise," Sivkov stated. In particular, in his opinion, military conflicts on the scale of a "local war" in the Middle East (the military operation in Libya is a clear confirmation of this) should be expected with a "medium" level of probability. Experts do not rule out that the United States will still decide on an operation against Iran. Moreover, most likely, the States will not formally initiate it, but will enter the fray as peacekeepers (as part of NATO, that is, together with the European Union) against the backdrop of extremely likely conflicts between Iran and Israel or Iran and Saudi Arabia. "In any case, sooner or later there will be a showdown between Iran and the United States," the head of the defense policy department is sure. Russian Institute strategic research Grigory Tishchenko.

Armed conflicts are possible in the Central Asian region, where Russia will be drawn in due to the need to support allies in the region.

In addition, if we talk about Russian neighbors, then the situation in Transnistria may worsen. “Now there is an active Romanianization of Moldova,” explained Grigory Tishchenko. “And it’s hard to say what it will lead to. it is very difficult to cope with a possible escalation in Transnistria."

A military conflict is also likely in the Caucasus. "Undoubtedly, Nagorno-Karabakh can become a cause of discord," Tishchenko said. "Azerbaijan is actively developing its foreign policy concepts, actively building up its armed forces. Armenia, where we have military base". "And the most interesting, - adds Alexander Tsyganok, - that Russia has no conflicts with either Azerbaijan or Armenia, so it is completely unclear how we will have to act when the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh escalates."

The first vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Konstantin Sivkov, believes that an "armed conflict-local war" confrontation is also likely in the Asia-Pacific region, in particular, between Cambodia and Thailand.

Moreover, according to the military theorist, such local conflicts in various regions of the world are connected with a global general contradiction, which involves the creation of a new world order. “And there have never been cases in history when a new world order took shape without a war,” Sivkov is pessimistic. “It was built twice - in the early twentieth century through the First World War and in the middle of the twentieth century through the Second World War.”

Contradictory peace... or war?

Mankind during its existence has more or less learned to resolve conflict situations peacefully. But only in a utopia is a conflict-free world possible. Contradictions between countries are inevitable, as contradictions between people are inevitable. Now experts distinguish three groups of contradictions that can provoke military conflicts of different levels.

The first group - internal contradictions in the state. They are mainly associated with two sources.

First of all, we are talking about socio-political problems (the conflict between the elite and the lower classes, associated with the distribution of the material product). "Such a contradiction is most pronounced when the incomes of the richest 10% are more than 15 times higher than the incomes of the poorest 10%," Konstantin Sivkov explained, noting that in Russia this threshold "has long been passed."

Another serious internal source is ethno-cultural and religious contradictions. There are plenty of them both on the territory of Russia and on the territory of other countries, especially in the USA.

The second group of contradictions is regional in nature. Contradictions, for example, between Russia and China (associated with territorial claims), China with India, Russia with Japan, India with Pakistan. There are internal contradictions in the Arab world, between Iran and the Arab world, between north and south in the Americas. Such contradictions are fraught with regional conflicts.

Finally, the largest group is the contradictions of a global nature. The first of them, the contradiction between the volume of production and consumption and the resources of the earth remaining at the disposal of mankind, according to Sivkov, "puts at stake the entire direction of the development of civilization." "This contradiction is antagonistic, as it presupposes by its resolution one of two things: either to limit consumption, or to change the social system," the military theorist specified.

The second contradiction is caused by the disproportion between the distribution of production capacities and raw materials. “Some countries have high-tech production, others have raw materials. Inadequate exchange between them leads to the enrichment of some and the impoverishment of others,” Sivkov explained. “The way out is either to leave some countries in a subordinate state, or to establish a fair distribution of income, which will lead to the impoverishment of other countries without changing the social order in these countries."

The third contradiction of a global nature, which is beginning to play an increasing role, is, according to the military expert, "the lack of spirituality of the free market and the spiritual values of traditional civilizations - Islam, Orthodoxy, and others."

“This contradiction gives rise to the explosive mass that goes into the ranks of militants and suicide bombers,” Konstantin Sivkov noted. “That is, the market, in the form in which it currently exists, and the spiritual values of the existing traditional civilization are incompatible. And the new global world is trying to decide with whom he is with the free market or with the values of traditional spiritual civilizations".

Finally, another important contradiction is the contradiction between the "financial bubble" and the real sector of the economy. “The contradiction that played a significant role in the coming to power of Adolf Hitler in 1933. The contradiction due to which the bust of Adolf Hitler was on the table at Henry Ford,” the expert recalled. “The contradiction between financial and industrial capital. And its resolution involves the elimination the power of one capital or another."

third world reality

Experts state that the likelihood of a sudden large-scale aggression on the part of one of the world powers, including with the use of nuclear weapons actually reduces to zero. Fortunately, the understanding of the consequences of such a war is present not only among civilized countries, but throughout the world.

However, a new world war, Konstantin Sivkov reflects, may arise uncontrollably, as a "natural escalation local conflicts regional scale, which will merge into large-scale conflicts." "I personally assess the possibility of such conflicts as "low and medium," he said. The use of weapons of mass destruction will be only the last stage of such a global conflict.

But a world war, if it is nevertheless unleashed, certainly threatens with catastrophic consequences. And if at one time Winston Churchill warned that " stone Age can return on the shining wings of science, "now the experts are more specific. The analysis allows them to say that in terms of duration a new world war can cover a period from 6-7 to 25-30 years, more than 100 million people with both sides, and the total demographic losses of the world's population may exceed several hundred million people.

That is why experts point out that the forecast of probable military conflicts is important not only and not so much from the point of view of preparing our own armies for military operations. The military hasn't started a war for a long time. And only politicians and, in the words of Sivkov, "captains" of the economy are able to prevent the transition of the inevitable contradictions of this world into a global armed confrontation.

Few from modern people seriously worried about the possible risk. It seems that the era of large-scale military battles involving several states at once is already in the past. But human nature has remained unchanged and the probability of unleashing a war that is disastrous for the whole world still exists.

U.S. Dangerous Actions

Topic global conflict resurfaced in the press after Jan 3 American missiles Iranian general Soleimani was killed. This came as a shock to the entire Islamic world, and Iran openly promised to prepare a tough response.

In the White House, the assassination of General Soleimani is considered forced. They insist that the operation was carried out "in self-defense."

Trump, who personally ordered the elimination of the Iranian commander, names the killed dangerous enemy USA. It was Suleimani who organized the assassination attempts on American diplomats and the military. According to the Pentagon, the general was behind the riots outside the US embassy in Baghdad.

No one knows how far the Iranian authorities will decide to go in terms of revenge. The US is a formidable adversary and it is too dangerous to hit US bases directly. But to leave the assassination of a prominent military leader unanswered would also be a sign of weakness.

Iran has already said it is waiving its obligations under the nuclear deal, which limited the number of centrifuges in the country. In fact, this gives the Islamic country more opportunities to develop its nuclear program.

In this video, US President Donald Trump will tell why America began these dangerous actions in Iran, which could cause a world conflict:

There are threats from Iranian military advisers about strikes on US military facilities. Trump in the event of an attack by Iran promises an even tougher response and the use of the most modern weapons.

On the night of January 8, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on the US air base in Erbil in northern Iraq, where US troops are stationed. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps took responsibility. The airbase "Ain al-Assad" suffered significant damage.

Donald Trump has so far responded with a tweet saying, "It's OK! Missiles fired from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. The casualties and damages are being assessed. So far, so good! Today we have the most powerful and well-equipped military in the world!” - the message says.

Neither side benefits from an open confrontation.. But still there is a risk that Iran will not calculate the strength of retaliatory measures and the Americans will take them as a direct declaration of war. Then one of the largest conflicts can break out in the East, which will lead to millions of victims.

When will World War III start?

Given the latest US actions to eliminate Soleimani, a scenario is quite possible under which World War III will break out in 2020.

Probability of escalating tensions to a point of no return in about largely depends on the actions of the two heads of state: Trump and Khameni. The American president is known for his impulsiveness and determination. The leader of Iran is already almost 80 years old, so many have doubts that at this age a person is ready to make informed decisions.

It is encouraging that Iran did not immediately respond with military action for the death of a high-ranking general. Probably, Khameni is still not ready to unleash a dangerous war.

Will there be a third world war?

Most political scientists believe that the likelihood of a new large-scale war is extremely low. The main factor holding back the escalation of conflicts is the presence of a large number of countries of nuclear weapons.

Formally, the number of nuclear powers today includes no more than ten countries. But in fact, their number is much higher for two reasons:

Secret developments in some states. There are suggestions that the same Israel and Iran have secret programs aimed at creating nuclear weapons;
Deployment of the NATO nuclear arsenal on the territory various countries. In case of emergency, the heads of these states will be tempted to use it.

According to military doctrines, most countries undertake to use nuclear potential only as a retaliatory measure. It is understandable, because the use of even a small part of the arsenal will lead to disastrous consequences, in which there will be no winner.

However, the First World War was also considered a war, which was supposed to serve as a good example to prevent new ones. But a large-scale conflict that claimed 18 million lives did not prevent the Second World War.

Which countries will participate in World War III?

A few decades ago, the most likely scenario was an aggravation of relations between the USSR and the USA, followed by a transition cold war into the real one. With this development of events, it was assumed that both states would destroy each other with nuclear weapons.

Today, the following scenarios come to the fore and possible participants in World War III:

Conflict between India and Pakistan . The problem is exacerbated by the fact that both countries possess nuclear arsenals. At the same time, India has strong ties with Russia, acquiring modern weapons from it. The United States is interested in the dominance of Pakistan, which is engaged in military supplies to this Muslim country;
Aggravation of relations between Israel and a number of Arab states . Israel is actively supported by the United States, while the Arab world is showing interest in Russian weapons;
War between USA and China . One of the less likely, but still possible, scenarios. The Celestial Empire has become one of the most developing countries in recent decades, and it is only a couple of steps away from superpower status. She has friendly relations with Russia, but disagreements periodically arise with the United States. The last clear example is the "trade war". Again, both states have a "final argument" in the form of nuclear missiles.

Countries on the verge of global conflict

Several times humanity was on the verge of World War III:

1945 . As soon as the USSR emerged victorious from the very terrible war, Churchill was seriously concerned about the future of England. After all, in some European countries there were Soviet troops. It was then that the British military developed Operation Unthinkable, aimed at imposing on the USSR the conditions of England and the United States in important geopolitical issues. Soviet spies transmitted information about the impending operation to Moscow, so Zhukov managed to regroup troops to strengthen the defense. As a result, offensive plans turned out to be too risky and were curtailed;
1962 year . Everyone knows the Caribbean Crisis. The United States almost implemented a military scenario of invading Cuba after intelligence reports that Soviet missiles were located there. Fortunately, the crisis was resolved thanks to mutual concessions between the USA and the USSR;
1983 year . The world this time was on the brink of war due to the false alarm of the Soviet missile defense system. She warned that a ballistic missile had allegedly been launched in the United States. The Soviet military did not retaliate because other means of detecting the attack did not record the launch of enemy missiles.

World War III - so far only hypothetical conflict . Despite the fact that humanity has several times been close to the realization of a terrifying scenario, each time the warring parties came to a consensus.

Video: hybrid war in 2020

In this video, political scientist Lidia Maksimova will tell you why the threat of the Third World War is not yet as relevant as it might seem now:

From the Baltics to China

US presidential candidate Donald Trump admitted that. The politician said this while speaking in Ohio.

We have collected other most popular scenarios among conspiracy theorists for starting a new global conflict and discussed with an expert.

Baltic.“There are opportunities in which a conflict may arise, but it is not a fact that they will develop into the Third World War,” Vladimir Evseev, a military expert and deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, told MK. - Potentially it could be Crimea, although this scenario is less feasible than the scenario with the Baltic countries.

There is a constant increase in the military presence of NATO, as well as incidents between aircraft and ships of Russia and the Alliance. At some point, this may lead to the fact that someone is shot down or drowned, and this requires a response.

At the same time, it is clear that Washington will not exchange its own cities, for example, for Riga. The presence of commitments within NATO does not yet mean that they will be implemented, so I believe that all "raids" on Russia are illusory. For the United States, the Baltic states need nothing more than a lever of pressure on Russia.”

Syria. According to Vladimir Evseev, Russia's participation in the Syrian conflict against ISIS (banned in Russia) was dangerous, first of all, by the risk of colliding with Turkey: “It would strain the Alliance, because these would be the first fighting between Russia and a NATO country. I'm not talking about World War III. As a military expert, I estimate the probability of its beginning as extremely low.

In order for it to start, there is different variants. There may be a false operation of anti-missile attack systems, there may be a provocative launch of a certain missile. In other words, events are possible that one of the parties will consider as a threat to national interests.”

Another analyst believes that in the Syrian context, a conflict between Russia and the United States is possible on the basis of the future "repartition" of Syria. “At the end of July, Obama said that after Manbij (the terrorists lost control of 70% of the Syrian city – “MK”) the next target would be Raqqa. The city is located in such a way that if the Americans occupy it, then there will be a division of Syria into two unequal territories. - said "MK" military expert Alexei Leonkov. - We are talking about a territorial area that is part of Syria and where America is trying to play the scenario of the Berlin Wall. This could lead to an escalation of the already difficult relationship between Russia and the United States.”

Korean direction.“The basis of any scenario of World War III is aggression against Russia, because Russia is a nuclear power,” says Alexei Leonkov. But hypothetically there is Far East– for example, what is happening around the DPRK and the United States under the pretext of localizing the conflict or a show of force.”

Note, according to Japanese data, Pyongyang, which likes to threaten its southern neighbors and Washington with strikes and a "sea of fire", has made progress in developing nuclear weapons and launching missiles.

India and Pakistan. The authors of The National Interest magazine are sure that the Third World War can be provoked by contradictions between India and Pakistan, which have already participated in an armed conflict against each other. “If Pakistani-funded groups carry out large-scale terrorist attacks in India, as in Mumbai (a series of terrorist attacks in 2008 - “MK”), then Delhi's patience will snap. But if Pakistan is seriously defeated, the use of tactical nuclear weapons will seem the only way out. However, analysts say countries are not focusing on these contradictions right now.

East China Sea. In its recent report, the Japanese Defense Ministry expressed concern about the military strengthening of China in the area of the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, which are the subject of territorial conflicts between Beijing and Tokyo.

Recall that Japan also deployed its forces in the area of the disputed territory. If the conflict starts, writes National Interest, then the United States will be hard to stay away: they are connected with the Japanese side by a mutual defense treaty. China could launch a pre-emptive strike on US military installations in the region, the newspaper notes.

Alina Chernoivanov, RIA Novosti.

The Caucasus, the Middle East, Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific region are all areas of special attention for military experts and diplomats. Where are the lines of geopolitical faults today, and where will we expect hostilities tomorrow? How likely is a third world war and will it necessarily be nuclear? How to prevent the destruction of civilization? Experts tried to answer these questions at the round table "Military Concepts and Challenges of the 21st Century" organized by the International Affairs magazine at MGIMO on April 26.

Input data

The least large-scale is the border conflict (lasts from a week to a month, requires a group of about 10-50 thousand people). The next level is an armed conflict (about 100 thousand people; from a month to several years). Next - a local war, which is impossible to wage without a grouping of a million people (such, by the way, is the planned size of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation following the results of the reform). Local war lasts from several months to several years. A regional war, an example of which is the Great Patriotic War, at the present stage of development requires a grouping of about 5-6 million people. Finally, the highest form of military conflict is world war. "By structure, a world war can represent a system of regional, local wars, armed conflicts," Sivkov explained, "or simply local wars and armed conflicts that cover a significant part of the world's territory."

Hot spots of the future

"All the contradictions that currently exist in the world allow us to say that the entire spectrum of wars can actually arise," Sivkov stated. In particular, in his opinion, military conflicts on the scale of a "local war" in the Middle East (the military operation in Libya is a clear confirmation of this) should be expected with a "medium" level of probability. Experts do not rule out that the United States will still decide on an operation against Iran. Moreover, most likely, the States will not formally initiate it, but will enter the fray as peacekeepers (as part of NATO, that is, together with the European Union) against the backdrop of extremely likely conflicts between Iran and Israel or Iran and Saudi Arabia. "In any case, sooner or later there will be a showdown between Iran and the United States," said Grigory Tishchenko, head of the defense policy department at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.

Armed conflicts are possible in the Central Asian region, where Russia will be drawn in due to the need to support allies in the region.

A military conflict is also likely in the Caucasus. "Undoubtedly, Nagorno-Karabakh can become a cause of discord," Tishchenko said. "Azerbaijan is actively developing its foreign policy concepts, actively building up its armed forces. Armenia, where we have a military base, is doing the same." "And the most interesting thing," Alexander Tsyganok adds, "is that Russia has no conflicts with either Azerbaijan or Armenia, so it is completely unclear how we will have to act in case of an aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh."

Contradictory peace... or war?

Mankind has more or less learned to resolve conflict situations peacefully during its existence. But only in a utopia is a conflict-free world possible. Contradictions between countries are inevitable, as contradictions between people are inevitable. Now experts distinguish three groups of contradictions that can provoke military conflicts of different levels.

The first group - internal contradictions in the state. They are mainly associated with two sources.

third world reality

Experts state that the likelihood of a sudden large-scale aggression on the part of one of the world powers, including the use of nuclear weapons, is actually reduced to zero. Fortunately, the understanding of the consequences of such a war is present not only among civilized countries, but throughout the world.

However, a new world war, Konstantin Sivkov reflects, may arise uncontrollably, as "a natural escalation of local conflicts on a regional scale, which will merge into large-scale conflicts." "I personally assess the possibility of such conflicts as "low and medium," he said. The use of weapons of mass destruction will be only the last stage of such a global conflict.

But a world war, if it is nevertheless unleashed, certainly threatens with catastrophic consequences. And if at one time Winston Churchill warned that "the Stone Age may return on the shining wings of science", now experts are more specific. The analysis allows them to say that in terms of duration a new world war can cover a period from 6-7 to 25-30 years, more than 100 million people from both sides can take part in hostilities, and the total demographic losses of the world population can exceed several hundred million human.