We can foresee the future at an ordinary level (for example, by signs, which has become popular among Russian entrepreneurs), trust our intuition, or entrust ourselves to mystical powers (prophecy, divination, horoscope). Foresight can also be built as a scientific research, and then it is no longer a premonition, not a prediction, but a forecast.
The concept of forecast.A forecast is a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of confidence 16 . A prophecy does not imply the probability of its fulfillment: it must come true. The forecast is probabilistic and logically constructed as a model of the future.
Management has developed an instrumental interpretation of forecasting as a planning method in which predicting the future is based on accumulated experience and current assumptions about the future 17 .
Forecast and global studies. With the development of cybernetics, forecasting began to develop as a practical and applied scientific activity. Since the late 60s of the 20th century, its most important direction has been assessing the global prospects of humanity. In this activity, a philosophical understanding of the future was realized, which unexpectedly received powerful arguments from detailed calculations. This focus of prognosis was largely formed under the influence of reports Club of Rome.
The Club of Rome is an international community of leading economists, management theory specialists, sociologists, political scientists and politicians, founded in 1968 by the Italian economist A. Peccei to develop global forecast models. Until the mid-90s, the preparation, discussion and publication of summary reports on pressing global problems by club members was the main form of work of the Club of Rome.
The first report, “The Limits to Growth” (1972), carried out under the leadership of D. Meadows at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was based on the cybernetic program “World-2” by one of the leading specialists in the field of control theory, J. Forrester. D. Meadows (Forester's graduate student) modified this program. In the new World 3 program, key factors (world population, food production, natural resources, industrial production, environment) were modeled based on existing trends (2 percent annual growth with a doubling in about 30 years, and for industrial production data from the 60s were recalculated based on a 5-7 percent increase per year with a doubling in 10-15 years). The conclusion of the report “The Limits to Growth” was that already in the first decades of the 21st century, humanity will face a catastrophe 18 . The publication of this and subsequent reports to the Club of Rome invariably became a world sensation and led to the intensification of prognostic research. With the tenth report “Routes Leading to the Future”, prepared by the director of the International Institute of Management Bogdan Gavrilyshyn (1980), a new stage of global forecasting began, the content of which is a transition to the analysis of socio-political institutions, reliance on the study of “political reality”, an attempt to determine “ societal efficiency" of various countries. Guidelines for a society that is effective in socio-economic, political and cultural relations began to be developed 19 . In fact, this was the beginning of social forecasting on a global scale.
Nowadays, the Club of Rome is realizing that the days of analysis and making recommendations in the form of reports are gone (reports only end up in the archives!). Now the club’s priority has become the desire to influence the state of affairs in the world.
Preparation of reports is only the first stage of work on a particular problem. The following stages involve participation in debates and other forms of persuasion of leaders of states and international organizations, participation in management decision-making at the national and international levels. The Declaration of the Club of Rome (1996) states that this international association “wants to strengthen its role as a catalyst for change and a center of innovation and initiative” 20 .
The direct connection between forecast and management decisions at both the global and local levels is thus increasingly relevant for social management. The desire to consolidate this connection on a scientific basis predetermined the development of social forecasting, and more recently its wider application in social planning.
Features of forecasting social phenomena and processes. There is a marked difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other. The weather forecast, for example, can be determined with a high degree of probability. But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a management decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky of clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteracting the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if it is expected to rain, put on warmer clothes if it is expected to get cold, etc.).
The specificity of social forecasting is that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it so that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively promote its development, contribute to its expansion across the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.
Social innovation has specificity among other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic. How is this determined?
1. In the social sphere, improving the situation of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is assessed through the prism of a value-normative system.
Karl Marx (1818-1883) in his work “Wage Labor and Capital” (1849) gave an expressive description of the social assessment of the acceptability of housing: “No matter how small a house is, as long as the houses surrounding it are equally small, it satisfies all the requirements for housing" 21 . It must be said that precisely because of such social assessments, the housing problem is perceived as acute, although housing construction is ongoing. Today, it is unlikely that anyone in Moscow will be satisfied with a room in a communal apartment in a wooden house, without running water or gas, with a toilet in the yard, although back in the 50s such housing was perceived as completely acceptable, since many Moscow families lived this way.
2. The successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or may turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.
Thus, the attempt to transfer to the USSR the experience of the GDR, Bulgaria and other countries in offsetting loan obligations to a young family in the event of the birth of children did not take into account that in the USSR there were two demographic problem situations: for 80% of the population it was a problem of a one-child family, for 20% it continued "demographic explosion" 22. I had to abandon this solution to the problem.
Social forecasting faces the same problems as social design. Who and on what basis recognizes one social process as desirable and another as dangerous? Where is the line separating the positive from the negative in a social forecast? Once again we enter the soil of value characteristics. Dependence on people's value relations is an important specific feature of social forecasting.
So, the objectivity of a social forecast is of a special kind; it is realized in the context of one or another value-normative system. Only if a social forecast is based on this system can it have a positive impact on social practice.
"The Oedipus Effect". If we know an unfavorable prognosis and, taking it into account, we take certain actions aimed at ensuring that it does not come true, we may well achieve success in this. Changes in objects or processes that arise as a result of the implementation of management decisions that take into account the results of the forecast, it is customary to call it in prognostics "Oedipus effect"
The “Oedipus effect” appears where the decision seems to cancel out the prediction and leads to “self-realization” or “self-destruction” of the prediction 23. The predicted undesirable event does not occur in this case not because of the inaccuracy of the forecast, but, on the contrary, due to a timely reaction to an accurate forecast that was not allowed to come true.
"The Pygmalion Effect." It has long been noted that predicting success mobilizes people, they manage to do what would otherwise be impossible. We call this phenomenon "Pygmalion effect": a special desire for success and creativity can, as they say, revive even a stone (as happened in the famous ancient Greek myth of Galatea).
The essence of the effect is seen in the fact that the forecast acts as a stimulus orienting people’s behavior, it affects the emotional-sensual, rational and volitional spheres of the human psyche, on the implementation creative(creative) abilities of people.
At the same time, such a stimulus should be recognized as a temporary factor, as a kind of “tailwind” that can change.
Attention to this circumstance is often discerned in the marketing of certain goods and services (although on the surface, most often only economic calculations are visible), since when selecting target markets, measurements and forecasting of demand are carried out, taking into account all the expected factors. The example of Atari's work in the video game market is instructive. In 1977 The release of video games on cassettes brought the company enormous success, but when strategically planning, the company took into account the opinion of experts who predicted a drop in demand for cassettes used in game consoles as the home computer market became saturated. The company managed to reorganize its activities in time 24.
The same psychological mechanism is present when predicting failure. A forecast of a disaster can cause panic and complete demoralization of people or, conversely, unite them in confronting the threat.
Social forecasting technology. A typical method of social forecasting, according to I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada 25, contains 44 operations, combined into seven procedures:
1. Development of a research program(pre-predictive orientation): definition and clarification of the object, subject, purpose, objectives, structure, working hypotheses, methodology and organization of research.
2. Construction of the initial (basic) model and its analysis: clarification of the parameters of the “innovation field”, formulation of alternative options, ranking them based on priority.
3. Construction of a forecast background model and its analysis: consideration of external factors influencing the fate of the innovation, determination of the possible consequences of the innovation for the system (the standard forecast background contains seven groups of data: 1) scientific, technical and environmental, 2) demographic, 3) economic, 4) sociological, 5) sociocultural, 6) domestic policy, 7) foreign policy 26).
4. Search forecast: variable direct “weighing” of the consequences of the planned innovation with the definition of a “problem tree”.
5. Regulatory forecast: determination of possible ways to solve problems identified by predictive search, ideal (without taking into account the restrictions of the forecast background) and optimal (taking into account these restrictions) state of the system into which the innovation is introduced; correction of the “weighting” data of the consequences obtained in the predictive search.
6. Forecast verification, determining the degree of its reliability, accuracy and validity.
Even in the most simplified versions, social forecasting is based on this technology, which specifies both the content and the sequence of actions. Of particular importance for practical purposes is the division of the forecast into search and normative.
Search forecast.A search forecast is a prediction of a social situation at a certain point in the future, which is based on an analysis of the states of a social phenomenon or process in the past and present. For social innovations, a search forecast captures the future states of a given innovation and its environment based on detected trends.
The essence of the search forecast is “to find out what will happen, what problems will arise or mature if existing development trends continue, that is, provided that the management sphere does not develop any solutions that can modify unfavorable trends” 27 . The purpose of the search forecast is to establish a promising problem situation 28.
The search forecast is very important for working out issues of the viability of a social project. It allows you to solve several problems at once. First, it outlines the potential for a social problem, its future growth or decline, as the background to the project. Secondly, it demonstrates the innovation potential of the project, its ability to create positive change. Thirdly, it warns about the possible negative consequences of the innovation.
An example of a search forecast is the examination of events planned in 1990, carried out with our participation. Council of Ministers of the RSFSR in connection with the resettlement of Soviet military personnel and members of their families from Germany to their homeland. It was assumed that new settlements in the Non-Black Earth Region would be built for the settlers according to Western standards. The experts proceeded from the fact that resettlement on such a grandiose scale could not be considered only as an organizational and technical-economic task. It was also about resolving a complex sociocultural problem. It was suggested that it is the sociocultural aspect of the project that is decisive for the effective investment of such large material and financial resources. Here are some of the findings:
Those who arrived professionally do not form a group that is self-sufficient for autonomous living in a separate city, town, or village. In this regard, the construction of new settlements (which was the main task of the project. - V.L.) dangerous not only in the sense of possible environmental errors, but primarily in the sense of the social unformation of new large settlements, which is always fraught with social instability.
Construction on the basis of established historical centers of the Non-Black Earth Region, which is generally more preferable, poses the problem of combining the traditional way of Russian cities with innovations of a material and spiritual nature that are foreign to them. The obvious revival of life in such historical centers will be perceived by the local population (and local leadership) as nothing other than external expansion. Resistance is inevitable.
The construction of new settlements and Western-type infrastructures will give rise to migration of the population of nearby zones to such settlements. Refugees will flock there too. In fact, a situation will arise where the funds raised will not provide accommodation for the displaced people according to the standard of living envisioned by the investors. What may remain from the plan is an average solution, economically ineffective and spiritually poor.
The experts concluded that the aforementioned negative consequences of the implementation of this project are largely inevitable, but their manifestation can be significantly mitigated, and in some ways overcome, by introducing a block of sociocultural design.
Positive processes, previously analyzed using predictive methods, were summarized in the expert conclusion as follows:
1. Resettlers who have completed training in civilian professions in Germany will bring with them a new professional and organizational culture. Rationally located production facilities, based on the achievements of scientific and technological revolution, will be able to count on qualified personnel potential. Thus, the rapid social and cultural development of places of new settlement, which will arise as a result of large foreign exchange and material and production injections, will continue as a trend for decades
2. The delicate intervention of new construction into the existing structure of historical Russian centers and especially the formation of modern social infrastructure will give these centers dynamism. The economic and spiritual dynamism of small and medium-sized cities in Russia is a decisive condition for the development of Russia, and the unfolding of this process in the Non-Black Earth Region, on the closest approaches to Moscow, is most consistent with the traditions of Russian spiritual life.
3. “Oasis” settlements, which will be settlements built with funds, according to projects and from materials of the Federal Republic of Germany, with all the disadvantages of a sociocultural nature, they also have an important advantage: they act as a kind of landmarks, models that will lead to a series of direct and indirect imitations ( similar to the concept of the Moscow “New Cheryomushki”, reproduced in various cities of the country) and, accordingly, searches in areas that previously did not receive public recognition and support.
4. The presence of a large contingent of young people among the migrants raises the question of the education system in the areas of new settlements, and this can turn from a problem into one of the achievements. It is advisable to develop large educational centers in small cities of the Non-Black Earth Region using the model of university campuses. In such university centers new forms of reuniting the intellectual forces of Russia and the West would be possible.
In the example given, there is no hierarchy of highlighted problems. In other cases, search forecasting allows you to formalize the problem field in the form of a “problem tree”, which was discussed above (in Chapter 3). It is important to emphasize that in the last group of assessments, forecasting actually turns into the concept of a social project.
Regulatory forecast.A normative forecast is a prediction of the future states of a social phenomenon (process), provided that active actions are taken in relation to it in accordance with pre-established goals, rules and indicators. In our case, this means that the future states of a social innovation and its environment are predicted according to previously known standards.
The essence of a normative forecast is to optimize a management decision, i.e., to select the best (possible) solution option in accordance with the intended goal. In a search forecast, an assessment is given of the likely, in a normative forecast, the desirable (subject to predetermined norms) state of a social object 29 .
As part of the development of a regulatory forecast, the application of the principle, which is called Pareto efficiency. A situation is considered Pareto efficient if it allows at least one person to be better off without reducing the well-being of anyone else.
This approach is used in world practice in organizing the public sector economy. E. B. Atkinson and J. E. Stiglitz in their Lectures on Public Sector Economics, in particular, write: “The Pareto efficient distribution of public goods assumes that no further steps can be taken to improve the economic situation with positions of the Pareto concept" 30.
It is obvious that this principle may well be applied to the characteristics of the social sphere.
Since the normative forecast is associated with goal setting, within its framework the systematization of goals in the form of their hierarchy as a “tree of goals” has received great development (about the “tree of goals”, see Chapter 3).
Forecasting and the problem of risk management. To a certain extent, the various goals of social forecasting can be reduced to identifying probable risks and identifying ways to avoid them. Of course, this is only one side of assumptions about the future of our project. Forecasting will show us the positive aspects of the project and will allow us to confirm our intention to implement it. But we should remember what we established when planning the project (see Chapter 3) rule of consequences according to which it is recognized that every project has positive and negative consequences and we must strive to reduce the negative consequences to a minimum and maximize the positive consequences of its implementation.
Taking this into account, we can admit that even the most remarkable achievements that a project promises us are worth little if the risk of negative consequences of its implementation is high.
The problem of risk management has become one of the most pressing for society today. Global, regional, and local risks have become extremely diverse, and their identification and prevention have become the most important task of ensuring international and national security. Emergencies have become commonplace. The level of risk of natural and man-made disasters at the beginning of the 21st century is extremely high.
On this basis, a theoretical idea of the opposition between risk and safety was developed. Perhaps this is most visible in the concepts of emergency risk management, within which the idea of about risk as the likelihood of a disaster and the damage it can cause. The risk assessment in this case takes the form of a numerical mark on a scale that records the expected losses in a specific area at a certain time.
At the scientific and practical conference “Emergency Risk Management”, held by the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Ministry of Industry and Science and the Russian Academy of Sciences (2001), it was determined that the main task of risk management should include both an assessment of the size of a specific risk and an assessment of how large the risk is for us. It follows from this that the risk management process has two sides: 1) an objective risk assessment is based on various data correlated with established indicators and standards; 2) subjective assessment is based on an analysis of how a given risk (probable danger) is perceived by society and what are the prevailing ideas in public opinion about ways to overcome the risk. “Thus, the first step in risk management is calculating the probability of risk. The second stage is its qualitative assessment, that is, an idea of its importance” 31.
A broader understanding of the specifics of risks is given by concepts in which risk is contrasted uncertainty. An uncertain situation is a situation in which two or more opposing possibilities can become real at once. The risk in this case is a way to overcome uncertainty, because it means choosing one of the possibilities 32.
Obviously, this approach covers a much wider range of phenomena, including those that relate to the features of people’s everyday life. From it grew the concept of a “risk society,” which is based on the idea that modern society has risk as its necessary component: the production and distribution of wealth gives way to the production and distribution of risks and threats. The task is not so much to anticipate and reduce risks, but to adapt a person to life in conditions of uncertainty, to actions in situations of risk 33 .
This interpretation of risks is more consistent with the features of predicting the consequences of social design. It also requires a more attentive attitude to traditional methods of social forecasting, since the difficulties of their application depend on the level of social control, on how much we are able to stop the “rushing truck” (an image used by the prominent English sociologist Anthony Giddens to characterize modernity, which produces risks) 34.
Nevertheless, the basic methods of social forecasting may well be used in assessing the viability of social projects.
Basic methods of social forecasting. Forecasting is a type of professional activity that is closely related to the current level of development of a number of areas of mathematics. Until recently, specialists with a good mathematical education and practical programming experience were mainly involved in conducting predictive studies. But the computerization of society has changed the picture. What was previously only the purview of mathematicians has become part of computer software packages accessible to any user. Many people who do not have special mathematical training (although it is, of course, desirable in this work) have approached forecasting. Humanities have brought more realistic and meaningful interpretations of the data obtained to forecasting. This has had a positive impact primarily on social forecasting, which largely remains the art of interpretation.
The main methods of social forecasting are extrapolation, modeling, examination
Extrapolation. Extrapolation is the extension of conclusions drawn from studying one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and conditions, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and present will continue.
An example of extrapolation: a series of numbers 1,4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is made up of the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the rad.
Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future population size, its age, sex and family structures, etc. Using this method, future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, and characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates can be given in periods that are several times distant from the present decades.
Using computer programs (Exel, etc.), you can build an extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with existing formulas.
Modeling. Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues - material or mental.
An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful management decision, especially dangerous for people. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any tests, which practically consist of changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is a huge advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, approaching which may be desirable for the creators of the project.
Modern concepts of social management establish that the modeling method answers the question of how goal setting is carried out. This means that building a social model involves, among other things, defining the general goal of the social system (maintaining its integrity and conditions for development) and dividing the general goal into a number of subgoals 35 . In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.
At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplicity. In it, certain properties and characteristics of a real object are coarsened or not taken into account at all as unimportant. If this were not done, working with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. Yet here lie possible pitfalls in applying modeling to social design and forecasting.
Let us present the main stages of mathematical modeling in accordance with the description by B. A. Suslakov 36 .
1. First, a mathematical model (“mathematical image”) of the object (phenomenon, process) being studied is formulated. The most significant connections that characterize the object are selected, while others (collateral, random) are discarded. The selected connections are written in the form of equations.
2. The model must be studied for various parameter values. For this purpose, numerical methods (computational algorithms) are used. The choice of a computational algorithm constitutes the content of this stage of work.
3. The computational algorithm is translated into a programming language.
4. To obtain data on the properties of the modeled object, which are included in the model in the form of equation coefficients, an auxiliary computational experiment is carried out.
5. Mathematical methods are used to process observational data on the behavior and states of a real object.
6. Calculations are made on the computer according to the compiled program. The result of the experiment conducted on the model is recorded in a set of numbers.
7. At the final stage, the results are analyzed and compared with other data obtained both theoretically and as a result of real experimentation.
These are the stages of mathematical modeling of social phenomena and processes, which is a complex professional activity. With the development of computer programs, mathematical modeling is becoming accessible to a much larger number of creators of social projects, including small-scale ones.
Modeling can also be used in non-mathematical forms.
Modeling specialist Yu.M. Plotinsky rightly writes: “The idea that has been rooted since school years that a model can only be mathematical is deeply erroneous. The model can also be formulated in natural language” 37.
This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many, while conducting a conversation, hold a sheet of paper in front of them and, as they present their point of view, record the main points, indicate with arrows and other signs the connections between them, etc. This is one of the common forms visualization, widely used in modeling. Visualization can more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where to fail.
Interesting ideas in the field of visualization have recently been proposed by the famous specialist in management and organizational consulting, Yu. D. Krasovsky. The methodological tool that he proposed for diagnosing organizations turned out to be very simple and universal, and in addition, suitable for constructing management scenarios. This or that organizational problem is presented in the form of a model: a cross-shaped intersection of two 10-point scales, each of which is constructed as a polar differentiation of a characteristic. This is how, for example, the problem of visualizing a model of possible counseling strategies was solved. 38
Many other models are constructed in this way, for example, the orientation model of the preferred behavior of company employees: “client behavior - anti-client behavior”, “pseudo-client behavior - client-selective behavior”. Diagnosis of a company is easily carried out in such a coordinate system, and possible tendencies of movement towards one or another perspective are immediately clear (usually along a diagonal passing through the intersection of coordinates). We can say that Krasovsky managed to develop express visual modeling methods that make it possible to bring the problems of diagnosing an organization as close as possible to the problems of decision-making.
The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very great. The model allows not only to develop an effective management decision, but also to simulate conflict situations that are likely when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.
In fact, any type of business game is a simulation. Some of the domestic developments in this area (“innovative games” according to the method of V. S. Dudchenko, “ensemble games” according to the method of Yu. D. Krasovsky) can be successfully applied in social design precisely from the standpoint of developing various forecast models.
Analysis and modeling of social systems have recently developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.
Expertise. A special method of forecasting is examination. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.
Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as a solution to a difficult to formalize(or poorly formalized) tasks. Having arisen in connection with programming problems, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain problem that makes other methods of its research, except for examination, ineffective. As we find a way to describe a problem using formal means, the role of precise measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of using expert assessments decreases.
So, expertise is the study of a difficult-to-formalize problem, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing an opinion) of a specialist who is able to compensate for the lack or lack of systematic information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on “common sense”.
A social project is subject to examination throughout its development and implementation.
At the concept development stage, many indicators are established by experts by which the effectiveness of the project will be measured. Assessing the viability of a project is largely based on expert judgment both regarding the project and the social environment in which it is being implemented. Diagnostic and prognostic research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods. When considering the prepared text of the project by competition commissions, investors, state authorities and local governments, and other organizations that make management decisions on the project, an examination is also carried out. The project is expertly assessed as part of ongoing monitoring of its implementation. Finally, the completion of the project, establishing whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also requires examination.
When working with social projects, various types of expertise may be used insofar as the project involves construction, or activities requiring licensing, or intervention in the natural environment. This is how they work with all projects. But the peculiarity of social projects is that here the leading role is played by social expertise - a special type of expert work.
Social expertise
Social expertise is a type of expert research that is in its infancy. A general idea of its meaning and purpose has not yet emerged. Nevertheless, there are many attempts to develop special expert complexes that have the features of social expertise (socio-humanitarian expertise, familistic expertise, etc.).
Actually, in two directions - the inclusion of social expertise in a broader expert complex and the development of its components - this method of assessing social innovation is being formed.
The concept of social expertise.Social expertise is a study conducted by specialists (experts), including diagnosing the state of a social object, establishing the reliability of information about it and its environment, predicting its subsequent changes and impact on other social objects, as well as developing recommendations for making management decisions and social design in conditions , when the research problem is difficult to formalize.
when we speak "social facilities" we mean people, social communities, social institutions and processes, organizations, social values, ideas, concepts, regulations that directly or indirectly provide for social changes, social projects, etc. The list of social objects should not be closed, since social reality is diverse and cannot be reduced to a small number of characteristics. At the same time, the practical tasks of social expertise force, if not to exclude some social objects from the scope of expert research, then at least to give them different meanings.
Our definition of social expertise reflects its main functions:
- diagnostic function - examination of the condition of the social object at the time of the study;
- information control function - research of information about a social object and its environment in order to establish its reliability and make appropriate adjustments if the information contains distortions;
- prognostic function - identification of possible states of a social object in the short, medium and long term and possible scenarios for the object to achieve these states;
- design function - development of recommendations on the subject of examination of a social object for social design and management decision-making.
The purpose and objectives of social expertise. In general the purpose of social expertise is to establish compliance of the activities of government bodies and other social institutions with the interests of citizens and the objectives of social policy, as well as the formation of proposals for achieving this compliance. In relation to social design, this goal may be more clear: social expertise should establish the degree of compliance of the social project with the interests and expectations of those people who are directly or indirectly associated with the project.
Social expertise cannot be boundless in terms of goals and objectives, otherwise its implementation will lose its practical meaning. When we talk about establishing the compliance of the activities of government bodies and other social institutions with the interests of citizens and the objectives of social policy (or we narrow this idea in relation to social projects), we indicate by this the result to which the examination should lead. But if experts took into account all possible situations in which people's interests are affected, they would find themselves in an extremely difficult position due to the volume of activity and its uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the goal setting of social expertise through item expert assessments.
Subject of social expertise. Most often, social expertise is carried out in three directions, which reflect the subject of the assessment.
1. Experts establish the social consequences for people (groups, populations) of social projects adopted and prepared for adoption.
2. With the help of an examination, it is possible to establish the compliance of the implemented project with its original plan, as well as with the management decision made regarding the project.
3. An examination can reveal the adequacy of the perception in the public consciousness of an adopted or prepared project.
The subject area of social expertise is aimed at bridging the gap between the legal, organizational and managerial support of social policy and the realities of life. This determines the importance of expert assessments for social design.
Organization of social expertise. The possibilities and methods of conducting social expertise arise from the specifics of organizational and management decisions, since its purpose ultimately boils down to serving them. The problems of organizing social expertise are directly related to the problems of organizational and managerial activities.
The applied purpose of social expertise is the ability of expert assessments and proposals to influence management decisions in the social sphere from the point of view of their optimization. State authorities, local governments, public organizations, project organizers are interested in this - in general, diverse structures and formations that make management decisions (below we use the general term “decision-making bodies” for all such structures and formations).
The need to conduct a social examination arises whenever a decision of a normative nature (adopted or prepared for adoption) can have a positive or negative impact on people’s livelihoods; However, the decision-making body is not clear about:
The possible extent of the impact of the decision on people’s livelihoods;
How the consequences of implementing a management decision will differ for different social groups, different territories, how they will manifest themselves in different socio-cultural conditions;
What resources are needed.
This kind of ambiguity can arise from various reasons. The source of ambiguity may be the very fact that there is no common opinion in the decision-making body. In other cases, there is a lack of arguments for and against the prepared decision or the impossibility of obtaining arguments other than through expert advice. But at the same time, the said body has the intention to predict the consequences of its decisions and social project activities. Or there is a need to reasonably resist external pressure “from above”, “from below”, “from the side” (decisions or draft decisions of higher-level bodies, subordinate bodies, other participants in social management), seeking recognition of these arguments. Often managers have a desire to rely in their actions on the authority of specialists.
Finally, there is a situation where there are several conflicting decisions (projects) that require an external arbiter in order to decide on the best option.
Thus, the applied purpose of social expertise is associated not only with the adjustment of management decisions, but also with the general cultural and general social meaning of the activities of decision-making bodies, no matter what level of authority is assigned to them.
Making a decision to conduct an examination is a typical management act with its inherent characteristics. The examination task includes:
Definition of the social problem in connection with which the examination is being carried out (including establishing the scale, carriers, stage of development of the problem, etc., which is not included in the task, but certainly precedes the development of initial formulations);
Setting the goal of the expert research;
Putting forward requirements for the form of presentation of the examination result.
This means that the decision-making body is not in any way assigned a special part of the expert work, and the experts are tasked with giving an opinion in a form understandable to non-specialists. To ensure this task, when organizing a social examination, it is usually necessary that there are not two participants (“customer” - “performer”), but three (“customer” - “organizer” - “performer”).
Models of social expertise. The examination can be carried out according to the model "Review" - the most traditional form of expert assessment, mainly used in the analysis of texts (documents). This is an expert’s review of the materials presented to him for study. The review contains positive and negative characteristics and a general conclusion on these materials. The difference from a review by a literary or theater critic is that the expert’s conclusion contains a mandatory answer to questions that are pre-defined in the examination task and predetermine the adoption of one or another management decision.
A review is a simple and least expensive examination of a document, but it does not contain all the advantages of expert work and can mislead the decision-making body regarding the true state of affairs or prospects for finalizing the document.
Within the framework of this model, an option may be provided to compensate for these shortcomings. His scheme is as follows:
A review is ordered from several unrelated experts, and the order contains a list of requirements, including the formulation of questions that the experts must answer without fail and unambiguously;
Reviews are accepted without any restrictions on quality, except for the points specified in the terms of reference;
The texts of reviews are examined by specialists (who are not assigned actual expert tasks) using sociological methods adopted in the processing of documentary sources;
The results of secondary processing of expert assessments are included in the examination report, which is submitted to the body that ordered the expert study.
Consulting can also be considered within the framework of this model: in fact, this is a review without presenting the text of an expert opinion.
Another model for organizing examination is "Monitoring". Monitoring is a regularly repeated study of the same object (phenomenon, process) using the same methodology. Such a study allows us to identify the dynamics of the development of an object (phenomenon, process). The monitoring model is used if the production of social expertise is carried out on a long-term basis.
The use of monitoring is ineffective if the nature of the problems being solved is diverse and they cannot be reduced to a small number of parameters. Another feature of monitoring is that it reveals its effectiveness only when sufficient material has accumulated to compare the phenomena or processes being studied.
The examination can be carried out according to the model "Project". This model of expert research is aimed at solving a group of related problems, in which expert assessment acquires instrumental significance as the basis for designing desired social states and trends.
Recently, ideas about the wider involvement of expert specialists for the purposes of social design have begun to be considered in connection with the interpretation of the results of expert surveys. The expert survey identified the function of “integrating concepts for improving social facilities, the methodological and procedural implementation of which makes it possible to carry out the task of identifying and studying problem situations, putting forward ways to solve them in the form of comprehensive programs (concepts), a system of measures to improve these facilities, targeted programs, the implementation of which will be a practical solution to problems” 39. From this idea, developed in relation to expert knowledge and its use in sociological research, it is only a step to organizing work with experts according to the “Project” model.
The “Review”, “Monitoring”, and “Project” models do not exhaust the possible organizational forms of social expertise. The difference in the tasks that have to be solved in each specific case, as well as the difference in resources (personnel, financial, material and technical), as well as the organizational and activity patterns familiar to a given situation, determine the choice of the form of expert research. A combination of several forms of examination is also possible.
Examination of competitive projects. In some cases, it becomes necessary to conduct an examination of social projects and programs that are submitted to the competition. Then a specific expert task arises of comparing different texts and preferring one or another of them. The grounds for preference are established depending on the objectives of the competition.
A similar task was solved in the 90s by the Expert Advisory Council on projects and programs of youth and children's associations in the field of state youth policy (since 2001, the Expert Advisory Council has been operating within the framework of a corresponding competition held by the Russian Ministry of Education). Based on more than 350 projects and programs reviewed, the Council formulated its recommendations for experts. According to the recommendations, the expert establishes:
- social significance of the project (program): relevance of the declared activity; clarity of purpose; originality (novelty) of the plan; legality, admissibility of activity; social consequences; the possibility of developing the project, its prospects; possibility of reproduction in other conditions;
- scale of planned activities", estimated duration and rhythm of the event; circle of people to whom the project is addressed; ratio of children (youth) and adults; number of people employed in active forms of activity; the need for special training; the share of funds to ensure the essence of the project in the total planned costs of the project;
- realism of the project (program): the ability of a youth or children's association to implement a competitive project, confirmed by previous activities; availability of trained personnel or the ability to attract them from outside; validity of the location of the events; reasonable expectations from project participants; rationality of cost estimates.
The peculiarity of this type of examination is that, nominally or actually, the expert becomes a member of the jury; he is forced to build an “elevator” of projects, not limiting himself to preferring the best and rejecting all others.
Technological techniques for working with a large number of projects have been developed by many expert councils. One option is the rules adopted by the expert councils of the Open Society Institute.
The working procedure of expert councils is usually as follows:
1. Experts prepare conclusions separately for each of the competitive projects (the volume of the conclusion is from a paragraph to 1.5 pages; large texts of conclusions are not approved, since they are more difficult to work with).
2. When for each project there are several (at least two, but usually 4-5) expert opinions, an expert council (5-7 reputable specialists in the field) is assembled, which reviews all submitted projects based on the conclusions received. The meeting participants themselves conducted an examination of the projects, for each project at least two of them were the authors of the conclusions.
3. Projects are divided into three groups: a) projects that received all positive ratings; b) projects that received all negative ratings; c) projects assessed positively by some experts and negatively by others. For the first group, there is no need to hold discussions until the moment when the question of distribution of prize places arises. The second group is excluded from the discussion. The third forms the basis of the work of the expert council. It happens that assessments diverge diametrically (categorically “for” or categorically “against”). The overall assessment is formed (sometimes after additional examination) in accordance with the criteria established by the council, and the project falls into the first or second group.
At the Open Society Institute, which processes grant applications from the George Soros Foundation, experts use the following “recommended criteria” to evaluate projects:
1. The project meets the concept of the program, its priorities, its implementation contributes to the establishment of an open society in Russia, pluralism, democracy, and the development of humanitarian values.
2 The project is innovative, unique in many ways, few people are trying to implement something similar
3. The implementation of the project will significantly change the situation for the better or will benefit a significant number of people.
4. It is clearly shown by whom and how the project will be implemented, the responsibilities and functions of each project participant are clear.
5. The project implementers are sufficiently experienced and qualified to effectively achieve the goal.
6. The project budget is realistic, balanced, well justified, there are no excessive requirements for any of the budget items.
7. The remuneration paid to project participants is not excessive and corresponds to the time spent and the qualifications of the performers of the work.
8. The requested equipment in the specified quantity and stated specification is actually necessary for the implementation of the project.
9. Planned travel is really necessary for the implementation of the project.
10. If I could manage the requested amount of money to support projects in this area, I would prefer to allocate funds in this amount for the implementation of this particular project.
12. After the termination of financial support, the project can further develop independently or future alternative sources of its financing are clear.
13. The project is not of a political or commercial nature, it is not aimed at supporting one of the political parties or making profit.
14. In accordance with the proposed criteria, as well as in connection with our own expert assessment, this project should be supported.
For each of the criteria, the expert has the opportunity to express his opinion with varying degrees of certainty: a four-tier rating scale is used: “yes”, “rather yes”, “rather no”, “no”. When comparing expert assessments, special attention is paid to criteria 1, 5, 13 and 14.
These kinds of criteria are formed by many expert councils that consider socially significant projects. This introduces expertise into a fairly defined framework and allows expert work to be carried out effectively.
Experts.Expert(from Latin expertus - experienced) - This is a specialist in the field of science, technology, art, etc., researching a question whose solution requires special knowledge. In other words, this a person (group of persons) competent in the issue under study, that is, someone who has or can, for one reason or another, have special knowledge about an object and is able to evaluate it, as well as having experience in solving similar problems.
Competence is the main requirement for an expert, no matter what role he is assigned in different types of examination.
An expert, as follows from the definition of expertise presented above, must have the following qualities: knowledge, intuition, experience And "common sense". These properties form competency structure expert. In addition, personal qualities also matter: the ability to work in a group, change opinions under the influence of arguments rather than pressure, mental flexibility, etc.
Methods for selecting experts. How can one select among specialists those who are capable of acting as experts in social expertise? For this purpose, special selection methods are used.
In practice it is often used random mechanical selection method. In another way, the choice of any of those who work in the relevant position. Sometimes certain indicators are taken into account (for example, academic degree). But such selection contains
there is a high risk of receiving an incompetent conclusion. Therefore, more complex procedures are used.
The selection of specialists as experts can be carried out according to documentary data. The main characteristics taken into account during this selection are: occupation and work experience in this profile. Additional characteristics: level and nature of education, age, publications and some others (depending on the purposes of the examination). However, such selection does not allow us to identify those properties of an expert that are not limited to work experience and basic education received.
With long-term practice of working with experts, an indicator is used: the ratio of examinations successfully carried out by a given specialist to the total number of examinations carried out by him. The requirements in this case are as follows: 1) the expert’s assessments must be stable over time and transitive; 2) the presence of additional information improves the assessment; 3) expert - a recognized specialist; 4) he has experience of successful examinations 40.
The method of selecting experts based on their self-esteem. The procedure stipulates that each specialist evaluates himself according to three indicators: “knowledge,” “experience,” and “ability to foresee events.” The assessment consists of choosing one of three values of the ranking scale: “high”, “medium”, “low”. These values receive a numerical expression (respectively, 1; 0.5; 0). Next, the aggregate index is calculated using the formula:
1. The concept of social forecasting.
2. Global problems of our time and ways to solve them.
3. Prospects for social development.
Human activity is fundamentally a transformative activity. A person in his consciousness not only reflects the world, not only adapts to the surrounding reality, but also transforms the world through his practical actions. At the same time, a person foresees the results of his activities and anticipates the future. People cannot live without imagining to one degree or another a perspective, a future that gives meaning to the present in its close unity with the past.
The problem of forecasting is associated with the study of the laws of the material world and the application of this knowledge in practice. The relevance of the forecasting problem is due to the following factors: a) the processes of development of social life in the conditions of scientific and technical progress have become more complex; b) the drama of the historical situation has intensified: problems of war and peace, the fight against terrorism, the state of the environment, energy difficulties, the fight against AIDS and other infectious diseases; c) the volume and scale of forecasting activities, the quantitative and qualitative diversity of forecasting objects have expanded; d) the social, economic, environmental and information value of forecasts has increased.
Obtaining social forecasts in various spheres of society is of great importance for a clear answer to the question of the future fate of humanity. To understand the essence of social forecasts, it is necessary to clarify the content of such concepts as “foresight”, “prediction” and “forecasting”. They record the ability to see the essential in processes and phenomena before it is discovered in experience, in practice, the ability of the cognizing subject to proactively reflect reality. Forecasting (from Greek prognosis – foresight, prediction) – represents the development of an informed guess about the future state of the analyzed object. The concept of “forecasting” expresses the process of obtaining knowledge about the future in the form of a forecast based on scientific knowledge.
Forecastmeans a prediction, assumption, predictive model, which is a scientifically based judgment about the possible state of an object in the future and about alternative ways and timing of their achievement.
Unlike forecasting concepts of “prediction” and “foresight” refers to knowledge about the future obtained by any means and methods, including non-scientific ones. A forecast, just like prediction and foresight, is not a plan or program of action. Some of what was predicted comes true, some remains unfulfilled or comes true with fundamentally different consequences than were previously predicted.
A characteristic feature of social forecasting of the future is that the future, unlike the past and present, does not exist, but acts as a certain, far from the only possibility. Graphically, this can be represented as a straight line stretching from the past to a certain point - the present - and then a set of vectors diverging in all directions, embodying possible options for the future.
Historically, the following ideological approaches to the study of the future have developed: religious, utopian and philosophical.
Religious approach based on the belief that the future is determined by supernatural forces and can be known through divination or divine revelation. The ideas developed by religion about the end of the world, about the appearance of a messiah-savior in the future, have a powerful influence on many millions of people. Developing in them a unique idea of the future.
Utopian approach denies the present, absolutizes the future. The utopians contrast the unjust and “unreasonable” present structure of society with the detailed orders of a fair future, created by the power of their imagination. Absolutizing the future, utopians present it as a completed phenomenon or system, in which future generations are assigned the role of passive executors of once proclaimed truths and scrupulously written rules of behavior.
Philosophical approach based on foreseeing the future as the next stage in the development of nature and society within the framework of knowledge of the general laws of this development. Already in ancient times, philosophical thought developed certain approaches to social forecasting, based on the following concepts of the historical process:
Circulation (cyclicality), repeatability of social development (author Pythagoras, who lived in the 6th century BC);
Pessimism (retrospective), which asserts that human happiness, a reasonable, fair structure of society is left somewhere behind. (Authors: ancient Greek poet Hesiod and ancient Roman poet Ovid);
Optimism (progress), believing in constantly occurring social progress. (Authors: Protagoras, Democritus, Epicurus, Lucretius Carus).
Today, futurology (from Lat. futurum - future and gr. logos - teaching). Many outstanding scientists have devoted themselves to this field of knowledge. A special place among futurological organizations is occupied by the Club of Rome - an international non-governmental organization that has united scientists, politicians, and businessmen from different countries concerned with the problem of the survival of humanity. Today, according to the definition of its first president, Aurelio Peccei, the Club of Rome is an “invisible college”, the purpose of which is “to help people understand the difficulties of humanity as clearly and deeply as possible,” as well as to stimulate the establishment of new relationships, policies and institutions that would help correct the current situation.
The basis of scientific foresight is the knowledge of objective internal connections of objects and phenomena. This makes it possible in the process of cognition to move from the known to the unknown, from the past and present to the future. If the law of development of a phenomenon (process) is known, then by studying this phenomenon (process), we can not only state its current state, but also draw a conclusion about the direction and nature of possible changes.
Social forecasting is based on analysis information array– a collection of data that form a certain system of scientific facts and characterize the object of forecasting. The information array includes various sources: mass media, political reports, statistical data, radio programs, data from expert questionnaires, personal characteristics of political leaders, assessments of their ideological beliefs, etc.
It is important in forecasting to take into account the social, economic, scientific and technical background against which the forecast object is developing. It is this background, as a set of conditions (external factors), that limits the development of the forecast object in the future and actively interacts with it.
The consequence of forecasting the prospects for the development of social phenomena and processes is search, normative, complex and systemic forecasts.
Search forecast is a determination of the possible states of an object in the future based on the trends inherent in it in the past and present. Such a forecast answers the question in which direction the development is taking place, what the state of the forecast object will be in a certain period of the future. An example of such forecasts could be forecasts of the planet's population, the development of communications up to a particular year.
Regulatory forecast determines the ways and timing of achieving possible, desired states of an object based on certain social norms, ideals, needs, goals. Unlike a search forecast, a normative forecast is built in the opposite direction, that is, from a predetermined state of the forecast object to the study of current trends and their possible changes that ensure the achievement of this state. Regulatory forecasting is the initial stage and a necessary condition for scientifically based planning, forecasting and design.
Forecasting can be applied to both controlled and spontaneous processes and phenomena. The following types of forecasts are distinguished: short-term – for 1-2 years; medium-term – 5-10 years; long-term - 15-20 years and ultra-long-term - for 50-100 years.
Forecasts are developed using certain forecasting methods, which are a set of methods and procedures for selecting and analyzing empirical information in order to construct a forecast. Austrian futurologist Erich Jantsch lists about 200 scientific methods, special techniques, logical and technical ways of knowing the future. However, in practice, no more than 15–20 forecasting methods are used. Conventionally, they can be divided into five groups: 1) extrapolation; 2) expert assessments; 3) modeling; 4) historical analogy; 5) future scenarios.
Extrapolation method is based on the extension of conclusions obtained from observations of one part of a phenomenon to other parts of it. If a given system in the past was characterized by development at a certain constant speed or acceleration, then there is reason to believe that this speed or acceleration remains unchanged for a certain period of time in the future. However, the incorrect choice of forecasting time intervals often leads to the failure of the continuation of past trends in the future.
Expert assessments– a method of analysis and research of complex problems. Its essence lies in the analysis of the problem by experts (leading specialists in various fields of science and technology) with subsequent formalized processing of the results. The generalized thought of the experts is accepted as the most likely solution to the problem.
Simulation method allows using a model to make a forecast of the future state of an object. There are several types of modeling: subject, physical, mathematical, logical, simulation or computer.
Simulation, computer modeling– an experimental method for studying and predicting the dynamics of complex systems using a computer. It can be defined as the process of constructing a model of a real system, followed by research and experimentation on this model. This is especially important when studying complex socio-economic processes at the regional and global levels, when direct experiment is fundamentally impossible or can lead to unforeseen consequences.
In addition to simulation models, which today are the most common methods for studying and forecasting global processes, historical models are widely used - images and scenarios of the future . The historical approach consists in determining objective patterns and trends in the development of the system and is based on the principle of determinism of the future.
The scenario is a multivariate forecast that combines systemic and historical approaches to the study of complex systems; in most cases it is descriptive in nature and is widely used in making complex forecasts. Scenarios clarify: how a certain theoretical situation can be realized step by step; what options exist at each stage for each participant in the events in order to facilitate or avoid certain developments.
In practice, none of the considered methods can provide high reliability of the forecast. Therefore, they usually turn to combined, complex methods. This approach makes it possible to eliminate the shortcomings of individual methods and guarantee greater accuracy and reliability of forecasts.
A typical forecasting technique includes the following elements: pre-forecast orientation (definition of an object, subject, problem, goals, objectives, working hypotheses, methods, structure and organization of research); building an initial model of the predicted object; forecast assessment; development of recommendations for decision making.
So, the forecast makes it possible to identify possible options for the development and resolution of problems of the future, its mutually exclusive options, spontaneous and conscious processes, and determine temporal and spatial parameters. Forecasting performs certain functions: social-gnoseological, heuristic, integrating, normative, communicative, search, etc. It gives an understanding of historical perspective, helps determine the direction of socio-economic and political development, and correctly navigate international events.
At the end of the last – the beginning of this millennium, humanity was faced with a number of global problems, the timely and effective solution of which depends on the present and future of humanity.
Global problems(lat. globe– ball; French global- universal, covering the entire planet, worldwide). These are problems that affect the interests of all humanity. They represent contradictions and difficulties that threaten the existence of civilization.
Many global problems arose in ancient times.
The problems of war and peace, educating the younger generation, combating hunger and epidemic diseases have been in the center of attention of mankind in all centuries. By the 60s of the twentieth (already last) century, these problems were not only updated many times, becoming universal, worldwide, but also began to be comprehensively studied, analyzed, and predicted. Today, global studies is increasingly covering more and more new spheres of existence. The consequences generated by global problems are widely discussed in domestic and foreign literature.
Researchers have grouped global problems into three main groups. To the first group relate super global problems of world order(global): problems of preventing war, eliminating the threat of terrorism, the problem of constant development of the world and the related problem of global governance, including the management of scientific and technological progress, the establishment of a new economic order. Second group -. problems of a planetary, resource nature: rational and economical use of natural resources, the problem of environmental protection, the exploration of the world's oceans and space, the problem of preventing natural disasters, the problem of food. Third group - These are problems of a universal, sociocultural nature, such as guaranteeing human rights, eliminating social inequality, epidemics, eradicating the consequences of urbanization, city construction), as well as demographic, religious, and international health problems.
There are other approaches to classifying global problems. However, regardless of the theoretical and methodological approaches of scientists, the food problem is always considered one of the most pressing. To solve it, it requires not only the tireless efforts of one state or another, but also the combined efforts of all mankind, the development of science, technology and the latest, including information, technologies. This attitude to nutrition problems is dictated by the real conditions of existence of modern humanity.
As the world experience of human society shows, the food problem, despite its global nature, cannot be considered as independent, in isolation from many other problems that face humanity. Its decision has been and will continue to be influenced by natural, regional, sociocultural and other conditions and factors. No less important among them are religious, national and many other factors of social development. As some authors rightly note, humanity has hundreds of thousands of years of cultural development behind it, and the food of various modern peoples is the fruit not only and not so much of nature as of culture.
Our food is becoming less and less similar to previously consumed types of food. More and more new types of mixtures and all sorts of tubes are appearing on store shelves that replace milk, meat and other products from a person’s traditional diet. Today, the chemical composition of foods consumed is changing. In many ways, it is still not clear how the widespread use of genetically modified foods, which has begun in our days, will affect human health. Moreover, the production of high-quality and safe food is inextricably linked with the use of new technologies, which in themselves involve experiments with different products and their corresponding modifications.
At the same time, one cannot discount the fact that a person has become accustomed to certain types of food for centuries, if not millennia, and this, one might say, is embedded in his genes, in the intestinal microflora. So, if the Chinese are accustomed to rice cakes and switch them to bread or Ukrainian borscht, then a sudden illness associated with indigestion cannot be ruled out. A sudden switch to “someone else’s diet” may not be very useful, and at times even dangerous.
The worsening food problem is closely related to the worsening demographic problem, which is widening the gap between the rich North and the poor South. The growth of well-being in developed countries occurs against the background of total poverty in the countries of the “third world”. According to the calculations of futurologists, if the consumption standard in the poorest countries is raised to the level of consumption of the “golden billion” who live in developed countries, then in half a century it is necessary to double the consumption of all resources and increase energy production by approximately 500 times. An attempt to solve the problem of confrontation between the rich North and the poor Pivden by simply increasing consumption will thus lead to an even greater aggravation of environmental problems.
Demographic pressure from the poor South and the contrast between consumption levels in the countries of the “golden billion” and the countries of the “Third World” inevitably give rise to growing tensions, which take the form of political, religious and ethnic conflicts. In the poorest countries, the influence of extremism is spreading, one of the consequences of which is terrorism - the most serious problem of today.
All this indicates that all global problems are closely interconnected and interdependent, so their isolated solution is practically impossible. The inability of humanity to solve at least one of the global problems will have an extremely negative impact on the ability to solve all other problems.
The system of global problems is of a specific historical nature. Their aggravation can cause a crisis of civilization. Today, more than ever, the possibility of total (universal) destruction of civilization, irreversible disruption of the mechanisms of biosphere processes on the Earth and near-Earth space has arisen. Humanity can no longer rely on spontaneity in the evolution of the world order. The modern world needs stability, democracy, civilization, non-violence, creating conditions for human survival.
Global problems are one of the objective factors of world development. Their impact cannot be ignored. Unresolved
global problems pose a threat to the existence of society on the planet. The aggravation of global problems is forcing humanity to look for new ways of interaction and development. Modern philosophers and futurologists talk about the need to change the ways of development of civilization. In all forecasts, the main enemy of humanity is itself.
Overcoming global problems is associated with: the development of science, technology, and the latest technologies; with a change in man's relationship to nature; with the focused and united efforts of the entire population of the planet; with the transformation of value systems and changes in relationships between people, individuals and society, between states; searching for new ideological guidelines for all humanity. In modern philosophy, this search is expressed in the emergence of the concepts of “planetary consciousness” and “noospheric understanding”. The future depends on man, his consciousness and will.
The ways of solving global problems largely determine what the general direction of social development, the general direction of social progress will be in the future. Social progress- this is the continuous progressive development of society, in which new, higher milestones, levels and better qualitative conditions are achieved.
An important feature of social progress is its irreversible nature. Scientific foresight allows, on the basis of knowledge of certain patterns and trends in historical development, to find practical means for solving social problems. The second feature of social progress is the increase in its pace, dynamics, and rapidity of progressive development. It is also characterized by: saturation of change and intensity of scientific discoveries, technical inventions, international exchange in the field of science and culture.
At the same time, the concept of “social progress” cannot be used as an eternal, absolute truth. What is progressive for one historical period may be a regression, a stop in social development, for another period. The rejection of outdated directions and forms is the movement of society forward, its continuous qualitative renewal.
Solving the problems of accelerating social progress and the ideas of sustainable (regulated) development requires a new approach to understanding the interaction of states and social movements. There is no unity in the ideas of most scientists about the near and distant future. Some defend the position of “socio-ecological pessimism,” arguing that the world has reached the apogee of production development, the use of limited resources, and will collapse in the near future. Many Western experts in the field of ecology (J. Forrester, D. Meadows, B. Pestel) believe that humanity must choose between technical progress and the continuation of life on Earth. Russian researcher N.N. Moiseev believes, for example, that global processes in the world are very threatening, where the idea of sustainable development is nothing more than an illusion. And talking about such development is reminiscent of the behavior of an ostrich hiding its head in the sand. Another Russian N.N. Trubnikov, rejecting the idea of progress, considers it the last, not yet debunked idol, tantamount to the persistent instinct of the herd, which moves further and further forward, in the hope that there will be more juicy grass.
In contrast to this approach, a number of domestic and foreign researchers are trying to prove that the limited sources of energy, food and other resources are not absolute, but relative, and humanity can solve these problems. In addition, history shows that the presence of certain “limits to growth” can serve as a stimulus for social development rather than as a brake, because future generations, as was the case in the past, will find a way out of difficulties. As a rule, representatives of this point of view are supporters of social progress. Thus, in one of the latest reports of the Club of Rome, “Paths that Lead to the Future,” the concept of the formation of a common “world order” is put forward, within the framework of which humanity can cope with existing problems and those that are sure to arise in the future. The intellectual progress of humanity will help to wisely manage knowledge and find a way out of dead ends and crises. Man will strengthen his power, as in the past with writing and printing, now with computer and information technologies, and in the future with new inventions. Social progress is not threatened by the exhaustion of human intellectual abilities.
Practice confirms that the leading trends of social progress are the increase in human freedom, the growth of humanistic values, the coordination of personal and public interests, the internationalization of social relations, the desire for justice, equality, and harmony in human relations with nature.
Reflecting on the prospects for humanity, it should be emphasized that we are talking about the possible formation of some kind of unified democratic and humane world community, in which different forms of property and unequal forms of social relations will coexist.
Only on this path is it possible for further development of progressive processes and the flourishing of a new civilization. The focus on culture, man, and his spiritual world is dictated by the need for a radical change in the productive forces and the rational use of the latest achievements of scientific and technological progress.
In the future, as has happened in the past, social progress is not immune to zigzags, leaps and even backward movements. Much depends on scientific foresight, the conscious and active activity of people, political parties and governments in order to avoid negative trends in the development of society and accelerate social progress.
For reference literature on this topic, see the following articles:
Modern philosophical dictionary. – M., 2004. Art.: “Future”,
“Globality”, “Postmodern”, with “Utopia”, “Futurology”.
New philosophical encyclopedia. In 4 volumes - M., 2001. Article:
“Globalistics”, “Globalism”, “Forecast”, “Progress”.
Philosophical encyclopedic dictionary. - K., 2002. Article:
“Forecasting”, “Progress / regression”, “Philosophy of global problems”.
PRACTICAL PART. Module III.
Social Forecasting– an interdisciplinary set of studies related to identifying options for the development of social processes and selecting the most acceptable ones that can ensure their implementation.
Types of social forecasts
Forecasting method: predictive extrapolation, expert assessment method, brainstorming, Delphi method, etc.
Social Forecasting– foresight, trends and prospects for the possible development of the social system, the forecast is general and abstract:
Forecast extrapolation method;
Method of expert assessments;
Collective expertise, brain stage;
Modeling method;
Method of mathematical modeling.
Word " forecasting " comes from a Greek word meaning foresight or prediction. However, social forecasting is not one of the types of foresight, but the next stage, which is associated with process management.
IN himself in a general sense forecasting means development of a forecast in the form of formulating a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future.
In a narrow sense forecasting means a special scientific study of the prospects for the development of a phenomenon, mainly with quantitative estimates and indicating more or less definite periods of change in this phenomenon.
The forecast does not provide solutions to the problems of the future. Its task is to promote scientific substantiation of development plans and programs. Forecasting characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned action program.
Forecast should be kept in mind a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty. Its difference from foresight is that the latter is interpreted as an improbability statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is easy to find out that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as the basis for distinguishing terms. At the same time, it is obvious that forecasting is based on the ambiguity of development.
The forecast has a specific nature and is necessarily associated with certain quantitative estimates. In accordance with this, the author classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as forecasts, and the early release of a prisoner under certain conditions as predictions.
We can conclude that a prediction is a qualitative assessment of the future, and a forecast is a quantitative assessment of the future.
Social Forecasting- determination of development options and selection of the most acceptable, optimal based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation. Social forecasting is working with alternatives, in-depth analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions.
At the same time, it is necessary to note the distinctive, specific features of social forecasting. They can be distinguished as follows.
Firstly, the formulation of the goal here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is, based on an analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of possible trends in changes in factors influencing the system under consideration, to correctly determine the probabilistic quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal options for the situation in which the system will find itself.
Secondly, social forecasting does not have a prescriptive nature.
In conclusion, we can say that the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and select planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another path of development in the future, and the plan expresses a decision about which of the possibilities society will realize.
There is a marked difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other. The weather forecast, for example, can be determined with a high degree of probability. But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a management decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky of clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteracting the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if it is expected to rain, put on warmer clothes if it is expected to get cold, etc.).
The specificity of social forecasting is that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it so that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively promote its development, contribute to its expansion across the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.
Social innovation has specificity among other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic. How is this determined?
1. In the social sphere, improving the situation of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is assessed through the prism of a value-normative system.
2. The successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or may turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.
Exist three main specific forecasting method: extrapolation, modeling, examination.
The classification of forecasting into extrapolation, modeling and examination is quite conditional, since forecasting models involve extrapolation and expert assessments, the latter are the results of extrapolation and modeling, etc. The development of forecasts also uses methods of analogy, deduction, induction, various statistical methods, economic , sociological, etc.
Extrapolation method.
This method was one of the historically first methods that became widely used in social forecasting. Extrapolation - this is the extension of conclusions drawn from the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and conditions, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and present will continue.
An example of extrapolation: a series of numbers 1, 4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is made up of the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the series.
Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future population size, its age, sex and family structures, etc. Using this method, future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, and characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates can be given in periods that are several times distant from the present decades.
Using computer programs (Exel, etc.) you can post-
draw extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the existing formulas.
However, in social forecasting, the ability of extrapolation as a forecasting method is somewhat limited. This is due to a number of reasons that are related to the fact that social processes develop over time. This limits the ability to accurately model them. Thus, up to a certain point, the process can slowly increase, and then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with the saturation stage. After this, the process stabilizes again. If such features of the course of social processes are not taken into account, then the use of the extrapolation method may lead to an error.
2. Modeling.Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues (models) - real or mental.
An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are used more often. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful management decision, especially dangerous for people. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any tests, which practically consist of changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is a huge advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, approaching which may be desirable for the creators of the project.
In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.
At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplicity. In it, certain properties and characteristics of a real object are coarsened or not taken into account at all as unimportant. If this were not done, working with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. Yet here lie possible pitfalls in applying modeling to social design and forecasting.
“The idea that has been ingrained since school years that a model can only be mathematical is deeply erroneous. The model can also be formulated in natural language.”
This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many, while conducting a conversation, hold a sheet of paper in front of them and, as they present their point of view, record the main points, indicate with arrows and other signs the connections between them, etc. This is one of the common forms visualization, widely used in modeling. Visualization can more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where to fail.
The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very great. The model allows not only to develop an effective management decision, but also to simulate conflict situations that are likely when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.
In fact, any type of business game is a simulation.
Analysis and modeling of social systems have recently developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.
3. Expertise. A special method of forecasting is examination. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.
Expertise in the context of artificial intelligence research is interpreted as resolution of difficult to formalize(or poorly formalized) tasks. Having arisen in connection with programming problems, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain problem that makes other methods of its research, except for examination, ineffective. As we find a way to describe a problem using formal means, the role of precise measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of using expert assessments decreases.
Social Forecasting
Unlike foresight, social forecasting is a probabilistic statement about the future. with a relatively high degree of reliability. The origins of social forecasting as a science are usually attributed to the 20–30s of the 20th century. It was then that the polysemy and polyvariance of socio-historical development began to mature, and new alternatives for the future appeared. Awareness of the new social reality gradually laid the preconditions for the formalization of prognostics as scientific knowledge.
Sociologist V.I. Kurbatov defines social forecasting as the anticipation of trends and prospects for the possible development of social systems, objects, social phenomena, processes. Forecasting is based on the identified parameters of the occurrence, existence of stable forms and development trends of this phenomenon. The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society. The main task of forecasting is the scientific development of forecasts, i.e. scientifically based judgments about the possible states of objects in the future or about alternative ways and timing of their implementation and achievement. The forecast describes the future state of the system.
According to V.N. Ivanov, a forecast as a form of social foresight describes the possible degree of achievement of certain goals depending on the method of our actions. Moreover, it can and should cover both controlled and relatively uncontrollable (spontaneously occurring) processes. In turn, Zh.T. Toshchenko interprets social forecasting as identifying development options and choosing the most acceptable, optimal, based on resources, time and social forces capable of ensuring their implementation.
Forecasting is a look into the future, an assessment of possible development paths and the consequences of certain decisions. Therefore, forecasting occupies an important place in social management. After all, every management decision, even an elementary one, presupposes a certain foresight, since this decision projects action in the future. Only on the basis of scientifically based forecasts can one act and manage with perspective. Science in general has a predictive function. It is science that is able to build a short-term or long-term forecast based on such indicators as knowledge of the quality and essence of reality; knowledge of the laws of functioning of this reality; knowledge of the laws of development of reality.
When it comes to social phenomena, forecasting is especially important here, as it shows the need for certain changes and the possibility of implementing these changes.
The prognostic function of sociology is a reflection of society’s need to create conditions for the conscious development and implementation of a scientifically based prospect for the development of each social division of society. Social forecasting must take into account the reverse impact of the forecast on people’s consciousness and their activities, which can lead to its “self-realization” (or “self-destruction”). This feature of forecasting requires the development of a scientific forecast in the form of options, development alternatives that describe possible forms and manifestations, the pace of development of processes taking into account control influences, as well as their qualitative changes.
Features and types of social forecasting. Social forecasting has its own characteristics. Firstly, the formulation of the goal here is relatively general and abstract, allowing for a significant degree of probability. Secondly, social forecasting does not have a prescriptive nature. A forecast only provides information for making a decision or developing a plan, indicating the possibility of one or another path of future development. Thirdly, social forecasting has its own methods - complex extrapolation, modeling, experiment, etc.
Knowledge of the arrangement of society in twenty, fifty or a hundred years today has turned into a kind of instrument of influence on social processes and mass consciousness. Futurology deals with the problems of forecasting the future states of society and the development of social processes. This term was introduced into scientific circulation in the 40s of the 20th century by the German sociologist O. Fleichtheim to designate a social discipline, the main subject of which was to be the future of humanity. Today, futurology examines the problems of the world and humanity as a whole, the global economy, the future of specific countries, upcoming changes in the world order, possible changes in ethical values and social priorities. As part of futurological research, forecasts are developed.
Typically the following are highlighted types of forecast: search, normative, target, extrapolation. A search (research) forecast is to determine the possible states of a forecast object in the future, and a normative forecast is to determine the ways and timing of achieving possible states (accepted as given) of a forecast object in the future. These two types of forecasts allow us to determine the presence of prognostic elements in various studies. To analyze forward-looking statements, a target forecast is also used, which can be divided into two types: a target search forecast, which answers the question about the goals that can be achieved using given means; and a target normative forecast, answering the question about the means that are necessary and sufficient to achieve the given goals.
The extrapolation forecast stands out in particular. This is information obtained by extending a pattern into a future period of time. A distinctive feature of such a forecast is that there is no alternative. Unlike the first two types, which provide for a variable development of events, it is based on a logical premise about the development of the object of foresight on the basis of a certain trend, which should continue in the future.
Sources and methods of social forecasting. Social forecasting is based on three sources of information about the future. Firstly, it is an extrapolation into the future of trends and patterns of development that are well known in the past and present. Secondly, this is the modeling of research objects, i.e. presenting them in a simplified form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions. Thirdly, this is a predictive assessment of experts.
– reliability of the forecast – assessment of the probability of the forecast being realized;
– validity of the forecast – the degree of compliance of the methods and initial information with the object, purpose and objectives of the forecast;
– forecast error – a posteriori value of the deviation of the forecast from the actual state of the object or the ways of its implementation;
– source of error – factor causing the occurrence of forecast error;
– forecast option – one of the forecasts that make up a group of possible forecasts of foresight objects.
One of the first widely used in prognostics was the method extrapolations. According to the definition of Zh.T. Toshchenko, it consists in constructing dynamic series of indicators of the predicted process with the earliest possible date in the past up to the date of the forecasts. Expert methods, forecast scenarios, and modeling are also widely used in forecasting. Thus, social forecasting is based on the use of a wide variety of methods for studying the objective patterns of social development, on modeling options for their subsequent evolution in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.
Priority national projects implemented since 2006 are aimed at modernizing and increasing the efficiency of sectors of the social complex, primarily healthcare and education. Much attention is paid to improving the standard of living of the population and improving the demographic situation.
Today, the goal of social forecasting is to identify positive trends in problem areas of the social sphere and determine the range of actions to achieve these positive trends.
Forecasting, strategic planning and programming of social services that ensure the reproduction and improvement of the quality of human potential covers four interrelated types of activities (social services):
- * healthcare and medical services for the population;
- * social security of various categories of the population requiring public care and state support;
- * education in all its forms;
- * culture, recreation and tourism.
System of social forecasts and programs in the Russian Federation
In the Federal Law of July 20, 1995 N 115-FZ “On state forecasting and programs for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation”. It highlights the stages of short-, medium- and long-term planning. Forecasts for the short, medium and long term are subject to publication.
A forecast of socio-economic development for the long term is developed every five years for a ten-year period. The concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term specifies options for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, identifies possible goals for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, ways and means of achieving these goals. The procedure for developing a forecast of socio-economic development and the procedure for developing the concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term are determined by the Government of the Russian Federation. In order to ensure the continuity of the socio-economic policy of the state, the data from the forecast of socio-economic development and the concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term are used in the development of forecasts of socio-economic development and programs for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term.
The forecast of socio-economic development for the medium term is developed for a period of three to five years and is adjusted annually. The procedure for developing a forecast of socio-economic development for the medium term is determined by the Government of the Russian Federation. The annual message of the President of the Russian Federation contains a section devoted to the forecast for the medium term, where strategic goals and priorities of the state’s socio-economic policy are formulated and justified, directions for the implementation of these goals, the most important tasks to be solved at the federal level, and the most important target macroeconomic indicators characterizing social -economic development of the Russian Federation. Based on the provisions contained in the annual message of the President.
Forecasts of socio-economic development include quantitative indicators and qualitative characteristics of the development of the macroeconomic situation, economic structure, scientific and technological development, foreign economic activity, dynamics of production and consumption, level and quality of life, environmental conditions, social structure, as well as educational, health and social systems. provision of the population.
The program of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term should reflect:
assessment of the results of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the previous period and characteristics of the state of the economy of the Russian Federation;
concept of the program of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term;
macroeconomic policy;
institutional changes;
investment and structural policy;
agricultural policy;
environmental policy;
social politics;
regional economic policy;
foreign economic policy.
The function of developing forecasts is assigned to the Government of the Russian Federation. Territorial programs are developed and approved by government bodies of the constituent entities of the Federation.
In addition to the Federal Law of July 20, 1995 No. 115-FZ “On state forecasting and programs of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation”, the basis for their development is the Federal Law of October 6, 1999 No. 184-FZ “On the general principles of organizing legislative (representative) and executive bodies of state power of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation."
